Sun columnist Preston refers to Roethlisberger as ‘Drama Queen’

In a Sept. 4 post, Baltimore Sun sports columnist Mike Preston asks Where is the Drama Queen? – a reference to Steelers’ QB Ben Roethlisberger, who he says, always leaves us wondering whether he’ll play. “If it ain't his arm, it's his knee. If it ain't his knee, it's his ankle. It it ain't his ankle, it's a fingernail,” writes Preston, who ain’t in the business of writing eloquently, and apparently doesn't recall that Big Ben played most of the 2010 season with multiple broken bones, including a broken foot.

Perhaps Preston is just sore that Roethlisberger has been a “Raven Killer” (as the longtime columnist freely admits). But if he’s wondering why there hasn’t yet been any drama regarding Big Ben’s health, it’s because it’s only week one. In other words, Roethlisberger hasn’t yet had the opportunity to play behind his subpar offensive line, which hasn’t been able to keep from suffering an inordinate number of hits and sacks in recent seasons. But don’t fret, Mr. Preston, by the time the Steelers meet the Ravens again on Nov. 6, Roethlisberger’s injuries will once again be fodder for columnists like yourself.

Packers: What are the Chances...?

The Packers are the favorite in today’s Super Bowl, and with good reason. Green Bay has a huge advantage in terms of its front seven versus Pittsburgh’s injury depleted offensive line (which will include just one opening day starter). Meanwhile, the fact that the game is indoors also favors the Packers and their precision passing game. The Steelers will need to put an exceptional amount of pressure on Green Bay QB Aaron Rodgers—otherwise Pittsburgh’s secondary figures to get carved up ten and fifteen yards at a time. Still, it’s difficult to bet against Ben Roethlisberger, who seems to have a knack for finding a way to win games—especially post-season games. My pick is the same as my pick from two years ago—Steelers have a 52 percent chance of winning.

Browns: What are the Chances...?

Pittsburgh has won just two of its past seven games against AFC North foes, including a 13-6 loss at Cleveland near the end of last season. But the return of QB Ben Roethlisberger (10-1 vs. the Browns) ought to invigorate the Steelers’ worst-in-the-NFL passing game and provide a big lift to Pittsburgh’s offense. Meanwhile, it figures to be a long day for Browns rookie QB Colt McCoy, who will be making his first NFL start. Unless WR/KR/QB Joshua Cribbs has a career-type day—or the Steelers repeatedly turn the ball over—the Steelers should win and cover the 14-point spread. Steelers: 90 percent chance of victory.

What are the Chances…? Is 2-2 this season and 50-22 all-time.

Ravens 17, Steelers 14

The absence of Ben Roethlisberger finally caught up to the Steelers today, who lost to the Ravens 17-14 on a last minute Joe Flacco touchdown pass. The game did nothing to dissuade me from the notion that the Steelers are a legitimate Super Bowl contender (with Roethlisberger).

“What are the Chances….?” is now 2-2 on the season and 50-22 all-time.

Browns trade Winslow Jr. to Tampa Bay

The Browns made a good decision today, trading TE Kellen Winslow Jr. to Tampa Bay for undisclosed draft picks. Of course, it doesn't change the fact that Cleveland should have used the Winslow pick to select Ben Roethliberger, a decision that organization will rue forever and ever.

Chargers: What are the Chances...?

The Steelers have been a very difficult team to read this year, and this game is no exception. One expects that Pittsburgh will find a way to win, unless Ben Roethlisberger isn't sufficiently recovered from his concussion and the offense makes the kind of big mistakes that place our #1 defense in difficult situations. But the Chargers' history in Pittsburgh is a little scary; 0-13 during the regular season, but 2-0 in the postseason, including the crushing AFC Championship game loss in 1994. That defeat was particularly horrible for me personally, as I had Super Bowl tickets that year, and ventured down to Miami to watch San Diego get clobbered by the San Francisco 49ers.

We'll give the Steelers a 60 percent chance of winning today. The Steelyard finished 10-6 prediction-wise in 2008, and is 36-13 all-time.

Matt Ryan's rookie year better than Big Ben's?

Lately, a lot of NFL "experts" have been claiming that Atlanta Falcons QB Matt Ryan just completed the best season for a rookie quarterback - ever. Sorry, but Ryan hasn't played nearly as well as Ben Roethlisberger did in 2004, nor did he match Dan Marino's stellar performance back in 1983. Don't get me wrong, Ryan had a great year and he's going to be a top pro, but he's getting a lot of help from a quality supporting cast, a view backed by this comment from an NFL scout.

Meanwhile, the numbers tell a story too. Here are Big Ben's rookie year stats (regular season only): 14 games, 13 starts, 13-0 record, 196 of 295 (66.4%) for 2,621 yards, an average of 8.9 yards per attempt, with 17 TDs and 11 INTs. Passer rating of 98.1. Fumbled only twice. Jerome Bettis and Duce Staley combined to rush for 1,133 yards that season.

Now consider Ryan's rookie stats (regular season only): 16 games, 16 starts, 11-5 record, 265 of 434 (61.1%) for 3,440 yards, an average of 7.9 yards per attempt, 16 TDs and 11 INTs. Passer rating of 87.7. Sacked only 17 times. Most notably, Michael Turner rushed for 1,699 yards this year, an average of 4.5 yards per rush.

What stands out about Roethlisberger's numbers are the undefeated record, the passer rating, and especially the off-the-charts yards per attempt. By way of comparison, the best YPA number in the NFL this year was 8.4, posted by Philip Rivers of the Chargers.

A lot of commentators have noted that Ryan came to a bad team (4-12 last season), meaning that he led the Falcons to a seven-win improvement. But the Steelers went 6-10 the year before Roethlisberger arrived, and improved by nine wins in Ben's rookie year.

Chargers: What are the Chances...?

Brief last-minute analysis: With all their injuries at cornerback the Steelers could be very vulnerable to the Chargers' relatively high-powered passing attack. San Diego figures to do most of its damage through the air anyway, as the team's running game has been sluggish this season. Yet, if Ben Roethlisberger starts (as expected), his performance will likely to determine the outcome. Big Ben will need to avoid the kind of costly interceptions that doomed the team in losses to the Giants and Colts. If he does, the Steelers probably win. If not, another costly AFC loss, and more incentive for Tomlin to start backup Byron Leftwich in the Thursday night home game versus Cincinnati.

Let's be optimistic and give the Steelers a 55 percent chance of winning this game. Prediction-wise, The Steelyard is 6-3 thus far this season, and 32-10 all-time.

Colts: What are the Chances...?

Another difficult game to evaluate, complicated by the fact that we don't yet know who will be playing quarterback for the Steelers. Personally, I hope Byron Leftwich gets the start, mostly because a healthy Leftwich is a better option than an injured Roethlisberger. Let's face it, Big Ben is now so banged up that it's clearly affecting his ability to perform up to his very high standards. Furthermore, Leftwich wouldn't hold onto the ball as long as Ben, an important factor when considering the Steelers' offensive line versus the Colts' speed rushers.

Either way, give the Steelers (three-point favorites) a 55 percent chance of beating the Colts. Currently, The Steelyard is 6-2 on the season in terms of predicting the games, and 32-9 all-time.

Time for Big Ben to sit

Even if it turns out that Ben Roethlisberger is capable of starting on Sunday versus the Indianapolis Colts, it’s time for him to take a seat on the bench for a game … or two or three. The Steelers have a disturbing history of allowing Ben to return from injury prematurely — at Jacksonville (appendectomy), and at Oakland (concussion), both in 2006 — even when a more-than-capable backup was available. Recall that those two games were two of the worst performances of Roethlisberger’s career, similar to those of the past two weeks against the Redskins and Giants.

In the long run, the Steelers would be best served by letting Big Ben’s shoulder and hands (and knee?) heal, instead of rushing him back out on the field. For one, Byron Leftwich is a proven starting-caliber QB, one who could hold down the fort — and likely excel — in Roethlisberger’s absence. Second, in recent weeks, Ben’s play has been subpar, no doubt due to his injuries, a trend that is likely to continue, especially if the condition of his shoulder has deteriorated further. But the biggest reason to sit Ben is to try to get him healthy — or at least healthier — for the stretch drive and the post-season. Otherwise, by the time the post-season rolls around he may barely be able to run or throw, exactly when the Steelers will need him most.

One further thought: I'm adamant that the Steelers should not have Roethlisberger running the quarterback sneak, except in the rarest of circumstances. Nor should they be running reverses where Ben might be called upon to block defenders. With $100 million-plus invested in him, it pays to be smart about minimizing the contact he's exposed to, especially in light of the ongoing struggles of the team's offensive line. Recall that in the space of one season former Tenneessee Titans quarterback Steve McNair went from star QB to being completely washed up (not long after he turned 30), thanks to all the contact he absorbed over the course of his career. The amount of punishment Roethlisberger is absorbing is reminiscent of McNair, and no Steeler fan wants to see Ben washed up before he reaches the end of his current contract.

Giants: What are the Chances...?

Yet another extremely difficult game to project a winner; this game seems like a toss-up. From the Steelers’ perspective the two keys to the game are: Protecting Ben Roethlisberger and keeping Plaxico Burress in check. It wouldn’t surprise me if Pittsburgh’s pass protection falters much as it did against Philadelphia, if not quite to the same degree. Steelers fans also know that a motivated Plax is a dangerous Plax, and this will be a statement game for Burress, who’s probably still jacked up about Michigan State beating Michigan in Ann Arbor yesterday.

Thus far, the Steelers haven’t had trouble plugging in substitutes for players lost to injury, but one wonders if this is the week the losses catch up to them. In particular, I’m concerned about the loss of CB Bryant McFadden and WR Santonio Holmes, and if DE Aaron Smith doesn’t suit up that could also have significant implications in terms of stopping the Giants’ powerful running attack.

My heart says Big Ben will find a way to win this game (as he finds a way almost every week), but my head says the Giants’ pass rush (and the Steelers’ injuries/inactives) will enable Big Blue to prevail. I’m giving the Steelers a 48 percent chance of winning.

That said, it's time to address the Eli or Ben argument. The idea that Eli Manning has surpassed Roethlisberger as a QB is borderline silly. Yes, Eli played better than Ben in their respective Super Bowls (Ben was only 23, however), and Manning is almost certainly a more dangerous two-minute/hurry up QB, but other than that Roethlisberger is a significantly better player. In terms of numbers, Big Ben is in the top five all-time in terms of key stats like winning percentage and passer rating (virtually identical to Tom Brady). I'd be curious to see where Ben would stand if one takes the motorcycle accident/appendectomy/concussion season out of the equation. He might very well be #1 in NFL history in every important QB indicator.

The funny thing is that Big Ben has improved noticeably since his Super Bowl season. What is most impressive now is how he has managed to thrive, in spite of playing behind one of the three or four worst pass protecting offensive lines in the league. If Eli Manning got the "protection" — and I use that word loosely — that Ben has been getting, Giants fans would have booed Eli out of New York by now.

Bengals: What are the Chances...?

The Steelers are 9.5 point favorites over the Bengals - as it should be. If nothing else, with Carson Palmer sidelined by an elbow injury, the Steelers have a huge advantage at quarterback with Ben Roethlisberger going against Ryan Fitzpatrick. Pittsburgh has also had two weeks to prepare for the game, while the Bengals played last Sunday, a 26-14 loss at the New York Jets.

The keys to the game for the Steelers are: To keep Cincy's wide receiver trio of Chad (Ocho Cinco) Johnson, T.J. Houshmandzadeh, and Chris Henry from making big plays in the passing game, and to limit the return yards of Bengals' KOR Glenn Holt, who leads the NFL with 744 total return yards, and is on pace to generate close to 2,000 kickoff return yards. If the Steelers find success in these two aspects of the game, the rest should take care of itself. Let's give the Steelers a 75 percent chance of winning this game.

Roethlisberger undefeated in Ohio

One of these days, Steelers' QB Ben Roethlisberger is going to lose a game in the state of Ohio - maybe even this Sunday when the Steelers face the Bengals at Paul Brown Stadium. But it hasn't happened yet.

Now in the midst of his fifth NFL season, Big Ben is 10-0 in road games against the Browns and Bengals, including a playoff victory at Cincinnati during his second year.

Of course, Roethlisberger doesn't lose many NFL starts. Period. Big Ben has thus far compiled a career record of 48-19, including 5-2 in the post-season (a winning percentage of 71.6 percent, among the best in NFL history).

Jaguars: What are the Chances...?

For the second week in a row, the Steelers play a game in which it is especially difficult to predict the outcome. Both teams are considerably banged up; the Jaguars on their offensive line and secondary, the Steelers at running back and on the defensive line.

Ideally, the Steelers should go to a pass-heavy offense this week. After all, the Jags' strength on defense is defending the run, and the Steelers are so thin at RB that their regular third down back (Mewelde Moore) will be serving as feature back. The problem is that the Steelers' O-line can't pass protect, and could allow a plethora of sacks if Pittsburgh attempts 40-50 passes. With Ben Roethlisberger already nursing multiple injuries, a relatively conservative game plan - one that features lots of wide receiver screens, slants and draw plays - might be best.

On the other hand, leaving the game in the hands of the Steelers' defense might be problematic, because injuries on the defensive line leave Dick Lebeau's unit vulnerable to the Jags' running game. But one could also make the argument that the Steelers' D-line injuries are offset by the losses the Jags have suffered on their O-line. The bottom line is that this game figures to be very close, but being at home, the Jags have a distinct advantage. Never mind the fact that NFL teams have a woeful track record in road games immediately following home wins on Monday night.

That's why "What are the Chances...?" is predicting a narrow Steelers' loss, giving Pittsburgh a 45 percent chance of victory. If Big Ben is unable to play, the Steelers' chances of winning drop a little bit further, to around 35 percent.

In terms of predictions, The Steelyard is 3-1 this season and 29-8 all-time.

Ravens: What are the Chances…?

As was the case with the Eagles, this is a very worrisome matchup for the Steelers. After an injury-riddled 2007, the Ravens (2-0) again possess a fearsome defense — number one in the NFL, in fact — and figure to utilize the same kind of aggressive pass rushing scheme that the Eagles used to exploit the Steelers’ vulnerabilities in terms of pass protection. Theoretically, there should be opportunities for Pittsburgh in the passing game because the Ravens can be expected to blitz on virtually every down, but Ben Roethlisberger probably won’t have much time to exploit these opportunities. And, with Ravens’ defenders crowding the line of scrimmage, Pittsburgh probably won’t have much success running the ball, either. To make matters worse, Steelers’ rookie tailback Rashard Mendenhall strikes us as a mistake waiting to happen, and the Ravens will be looking to strip the ball on virtually every carry. Down the road, Mendenhall may very well prove to be an exceptional feature back, but he has shown no indication of being ready to carry the load in a prime-time matchup against a team like the Ravens. Keeping the sacks and fumbles to a minimum will be the key to winning this game.

Meanwhile, Pittsburgh suddenly has significant issues on defense. The Ravens are running the ball very, very effectively this season, and the Steelers could have problems defending the run with both NT Casey Hampton and starting DE Brett Keisel out with injuries, thereby exposing the team’s lack of depth on the defensive line. Young quarterbacks — in this case, rookie Joe Flacco — usually struggle mightily when facing the Steelers’ complicated defense for the first time, but if Baltimore runs the ball effectively and the Steelers’ offense can’t get out of its own way, the Ravens may not need much from Flacco to escape Pittsburgh with a win.

In recent years, Baltimore-Pittsburgh matchups have been decidedly one-sided affairs, with one team thrashing the other. But this game is likely to be a close, low-scoring game. While the Steelers are almost always successful at home on Monday Night Football (MNF), this could be the night the 13-game MNF home winning streak gets broken. We understand that the Steelers are five-and-a-half point favorites, but that seems optimistic. The way we see it, the Steelers win only if Flacco implodes, a distinct possibility considering that this will be his first road game. Bottom line? We give the Steelers just a 45 percent chance of winning this game; thus, the pick, unfortunately, is the Ravens.

Prediction-wise The Steelyard is 3-0 on the season and 29-7 all-time.

Eagles: In review

After correctly predicting an Eagles' victory, "What are the Chances...?" is now 3-0 on the year and 29-7 all-time in terms of predicting the outcome of Steelers' games.

A few notes in the wake of Sunday's loss: Mike Tomlin was wrong not to kick a field goal on 4th and 10 from the Eagles' 22 with less than a minute to go. It almost certainly wouldn't have changed the outcome, but game management decisions like these (and Tomlin's inability to see the error of his ways) should be a concern for Steelers' fans.

Second, it's not necessarily true that the Steelers need a strong running game to pass the ball effectively. In recent years, Pittsburgh has frequently utilized a pass-first/pass-oriented approach, often with spectacular results. What is necessary for the Steelers' offense to be successful is half-decent pass protection for Ben Roethlisberger. Last year, the Steelers' ratio of sacks to pass attempts was 11.6 percent. This year it's an eye-popping 20.3 percent, putting Pittsburgh on pace to allow 64 sacks. There isn't an NFL offense or quarterback that is going to be consistently successful allowing sacks at that rate.

While the O-line is the team's greatest concern, Pittsburgh may also struggle to stop the run in coming weeks if NT Casey Hampton is out of the lineup for any length of time. Pittsburgh probably doesn't have enough depth on its D-line to play without two of its three starters for an extended period time.

Unfortunately, the Ravens have a strong running game and the potential to utilize the kind of blitz-happy pass rushing schemes that could present major problems for the Steelers on Monday night.

Eagles: What are the Chances...?

This week’s matchup is a toss-up. Both teams have top quarterbacks (Ben Roethlisberger is #1 in the NFL in passer rating with a 133.9 rating and Donovan McNabb is sixth in that category) and both possess elite defenses (led by two of the top defensive coordinators in the NFL, Dick LeBeau and Jim Johnson). Since running the ball figures to be a challenge for both teams, the game figures to be won by the team that makes more plays in the passing game. As always, pass protection will be a concern for the Steelers, but if Big Ben has time to throw the ball downfield, Santonio Holmes could exploit the Eagles’ secondary in the deep passing game.

Big Ben is 1-0 against the Eagles in his career, a 27-3 win at Heinz Field during his rookie year, when he completed 11 of 18 passes for 183 yards, throwing 2 TDs and 1 INT (109.3 passer rating). But Pittsburgh hasn’t won a game in Philadelphia since, well, it was long before the Steelers drafted Terry Bradshaw.

One advantage the Steelers have is an extra day to rest and prepare, as the Eagles played at Dallas (a 41-37 loss) this past Monday night. A little-noticed disadvantage is that Philadelphia signed former Steelers’ wide receiver Willie Reid to its practice squad back in August, perhaps in anticipation of this game. One can't imagine Reid actually playing in the game, but without a doubt he's been huddling with the Eagles' defensive coaches all week long, providing insight into the Steelers' offensive tendencies.

In the final analysis, we see the Steelers as having close to a 50 percent chance of winning, and would probably pick Pittsburgh if the game was at Heinz Field. But since it’s not, we’re predicting an Eagles victory. “What are the Chances…?” is 2-0 thus far in 2008 and 28-7 all-time.

P.S. We’re still waiting for Rashard Mendenhall to do something that leads directly to a Steelers’ loss. It’s going to happen sometime this season; it’s just a matter of when.

Steelers 10, Browns 6

It wasn't pretty but Ben Roethlisberger made big plays when the Steelers needed them most and Pittsburgh eked out a 10-6 win over the Browns. Prediction-wise "What are the Chances...?" is now 2-0 on the season and 28-7 all-time.

Browns: What are the Chances...?

Back in early 2004, as the NFL draft approached, the Browns made a fateful decision to acquire Trent Dilfer, signing the veteran QB to a four-year contract. The move essentially precluded Cleveland from selecting Ben Roethlisberger, who was still available with the sixth pick in that year's draft. (Instead, the Browns chose a tight end, Kellen Winslow Jr., a good player but not a franchise-changing performer.) Cleveland has been paying for that mistake ever since, as Roethlisberger has posted a 40-16 regular season record over four-plus seasons and is 7-0 against the Browns (including 4-0 at Cleveland Browns Stadium).

Tomorrow the Browns will try to contain Roethlisberger once more, and unless Cleveland generates a fierce pash rush, its shaky defensive backfield figures to be exposed by Big Ben. But the key to the game for the Steelers will be to keep both Braylon Edwards (WR) and Joshua Cribbs (KR) from making big plays. Without "splash" plays from those two players it seems unlikely that the Browns will be able to keep pace with Pittsburgh's balanced attack.

The Steelyard predicts a win for the Steelers, giving Pittsburgh a 65 percent chance of winning this game. "What are the Chances...?" is 1-0 this season and 27-7 all-time.

Texans: What are the Chances...?

Today marks the return of our "What are the Chances...?" segment, in which The Steelyard assesses the chances of the Steelers winning their upcoming game. Last year, "What ..." finished 13-4 and is 26-7 over the last two years, including last season's playoff game versus Jacksonville.

Generally speaking, Pittsburgh fans seem quite confident about beating the Texans, perhaps too confident. Houston is a much better team than people think, and the Texans' strengths (defensive line, for example) correspond to the Steelers' weaknesses (offensive line, for one).

Having said that, here are the most likely problems to emerge versus Houston: 1) The Steelers' pass protection consistently breaks down, leading to an assortment of drive-killing plays. 2) The Steelers give up big plays in the return game and/or make game changing mistakes in their own return game (see next item). 3) Rashard Mendenhall fumbles the game away, either on return(s) or out of the backfield. Back on July 22, The Steelyard addressed the potential for Mendenhall to have fumbling problems coming into the NFL, and unfortunately, our fears have been realized. Contrary to recent public pronouncements, Mike Tomlin and the other Steelers' coaches haven't forgotten about Mendenhall's fumbling issues, and you can be sure that the Texans know about Rashard's woes and will be looking to strip the ball on every touch he receives.

Our sense is that it will be a relatively low-scoring game and that the Steelers will do enough to win (let's give Pittsburgh a 55 percent chance of victory), but really, it wouldn't shock us one bit if the Texans came away with an upset. Last season, Ben Roethlisberger did an unbelievable job of covering up the play of his leaky offensive line, leading a team with, say, 6-10 talent to a 10-6 record. Big Ben may need more of that same magic this year, and in tomorrow's game in particular, if the Steelers hope to be successful.