Sunday, November 27, 2011

Chiefs: What are the Chances...?

The Steelers are a ten-point favorite at Kansas City tonight—and deservedly so. Arrowhead Stadium is one of the toughest venues for a visiting team, but with Tyler Palko at QB and numerous key players lost for the season due to injury, it’s difficult to imagine the 4-6 Chiefs coming away with a win against Pittsburgh. But I wouldn’t be surprised if Kyle Orton makes an appearance in relief for Kansas City if Palko struggles, as can be expected. I’m not confident the Steelers will cover the spread, but I’m assigning Pitt a 75 percent chance of victory.

Prediction success rate in 2011? 5-2 thus far (missed a couple games); 64-28 all-time.

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Sunday, November 13, 2011

Bengals: What are the Chances...?

Pittsburgh has won nine of its last ten games at Cincinnati, and are favored by three points today. The key to the game might be whether the Steelers can force rookie QB Andy Dalton into making mistakes, if not game-changing turnovers. Being that it’s very, very windy today in Cincinnati, that could allow the Steelers defense to play closer to the line of scrimmage, which ought to play into Pittsburgh’s hands against the Bengals’ mostly conservative offense. Most likely, Pittsburgh will need to hold Cincinnati’s offense under 21 points or so, because the Steelers’ inconsistent O isn’t likely to score many more than that against Cincy’s stout defense. Historically, the Bengals have had difficulty handling success — and though maybe they aren’t far enough along to be considered successful — I still believe the Steelers will find a way to win today.