Eagles: What are the Chances...?

This week’s matchup is a toss-up. Both teams have top quarterbacks (Ben Roethlisberger is #1 in the NFL in passer rating with a 133.9 rating and Donovan McNabb is sixth in that category) and both possess elite defenses (led by two of the top defensive coordinators in the NFL, Dick LeBeau and Jim Johnson). Since running the ball figures to be a challenge for both teams, the game figures to be won by the team that makes more plays in the passing game. As always, pass protection will be a concern for the Steelers, but if Big Ben has time to throw the ball downfield, Santonio Holmes could exploit the Eagles’ secondary in the deep passing game.

Big Ben is 1-0 against the Eagles in his career, a 27-3 win at Heinz Field during his rookie year, when he completed 11 of 18 passes for 183 yards, throwing 2 TDs and 1 INT (109.3 passer rating). But Pittsburgh hasn’t won a game in Philadelphia since, well, it was long before the Steelers drafted Terry Bradshaw.

One advantage the Steelers have is an extra day to rest and prepare, as the Eagles played at Dallas (a 41-37 loss) this past Monday night. A little-noticed disadvantage is that Philadelphia signed former Steelers’ wide receiver Willie Reid to its practice squad back in August, perhaps in anticipation of this game. One can't imagine Reid actually playing in the game, but without a doubt he's been huddling with the Eagles' defensive coaches all week long, providing insight into the Steelers' offensive tendencies.

In the final analysis, we see the Steelers as having close to a 50 percent chance of winning, and would probably pick Pittsburgh if the game was at Heinz Field. But since it’s not, we’re predicting an Eagles victory. “What are the Chances…?” is 2-0 thus far in 2008 and 28-7 all-time.

P.S. We’re still waiting for Rashard Mendenhall to do something that leads directly to a Steelers’ loss. It’s going to happen sometime this season; it’s just a matter of when.

Roethlisberger's underrated season

When Steelers' QB Ben Roethlisberger was named to the Pro Bowl earlier this season many sports media pundits questioned whether other AFC QB's like David Garrard (Jacksonville) or even Derek Anderson (Cleveland) would have been more deserving. Sorry folks, Roethlisberger is more deserving of a Pro Bowl berth than any other QB in the league, excepting Tom Brady, of course.

By way of comparison, Brady finished the regular season with 50 touchdown passes and just eight interceptions (117.2 passer rating). Roethlisberger threw 32 TD passes and only 11 interceptions (104.1 rating). Compare those numbers to those of Garrard (18 TD's, 3 INT's, 102.2 rating) and Anderson (29 TD's, 19 INT's, 82.5 rating). Then consider that Roethlisberger received some of the worst pass protection in the NFL. Big Ben was sacked a David Carr-like 47 times in only 404 pass attempts (one sack for every 8.6 attempts), while Garrard went down 21 times in 325 attempts (once every 15.4 attempts) and Anderson a mere 14 times in 527 attempts (once per 37.6 attempts).

It's also worth comparing Roethlisberger's numbers to other QB's who received inadequate protection. Only two other quarterbacks were sacked more than 37 times in 2007. Donovan McNabb (Philadelphia) was sacked 44 times in 473 attempts (once per 10.75 attempts) and posted an 89.9 passer rating, while Jon Kitna (Detroit) absorbed a league-high 51 sacks in 561 attempts (one sack per 11 attempts) and finished with an 80.9 rating.

Some might argue that Roethlisberger benefitted from a strong running game, as Pittsburgh's feature back, Willie Parker, gained more than 1,300 yards. Yet, Parker managed a relatively pedestrian 4.1 yards per carry (far below most of the league's other rushing leaders), and his impressive yardage total is mostly a function of his high number of carries. Meanwhile, Big Ben's receivers are hardly an impressive lot: Hines Ward may one day be enshrined in the Hall of Fame, but at this point in his career, he's a move-the-chains type of possession receiver. And like Santonio Holmes (Pittsburgh's only legitimate down-the-field threat), Ward has not been able to stay healthy this year. Finally, tight end Heath Miller is a solid receiver, but rarely generates a big play.

The bottom line is that Roethlisberger has done more with less than any other QB in the league. If the Steelers somehow find a way to upgrade the talent around him, one can expect even better performances from Big Ben in coming seasons.