Ravens: What are the Chances…?

As was the case with the Eagles, this is a very worrisome matchup for the Steelers. After an injury-riddled 2007, the Ravens (2-0) again possess a fearsome defense — number one in the NFL, in fact — and figure to utilize the same kind of aggressive pass rushing scheme that the Eagles used to exploit the Steelers’ vulnerabilities in terms of pass protection. Theoretically, there should be opportunities for Pittsburgh in the passing game because the Ravens can be expected to blitz on virtually every down, but Ben Roethlisberger probably won’t have much time to exploit these opportunities. And, with Ravens’ defenders crowding the line of scrimmage, Pittsburgh probably won’t have much success running the ball, either. To make matters worse, Steelers’ rookie tailback Rashard Mendenhall strikes us as a mistake waiting to happen, and the Ravens will be looking to strip the ball on virtually every carry. Down the road, Mendenhall may very well prove to be an exceptional feature back, but he has shown no indication of being ready to carry the load in a prime-time matchup against a team like the Ravens. Keeping the sacks and fumbles to a minimum will be the key to winning this game.

Meanwhile, Pittsburgh suddenly has significant issues on defense. The Ravens are running the ball very, very effectively this season, and the Steelers could have problems defending the run with both NT Casey Hampton and starting DE Brett Keisel out with injuries, thereby exposing the team’s lack of depth on the defensive line. Young quarterbacks — in this case, rookie Joe Flacco — usually struggle mightily when facing the Steelers’ complicated defense for the first time, but if Baltimore runs the ball effectively and the Steelers’ offense can’t get out of its own way, the Ravens may not need much from Flacco to escape Pittsburgh with a win.

In recent years, Baltimore-Pittsburgh matchups have been decidedly one-sided affairs, with one team thrashing the other. But this game is likely to be a close, low-scoring game. While the Steelers are almost always successful at home on Monday Night Football (MNF), this could be the night the 13-game MNF home winning streak gets broken. We understand that the Steelers are five-and-a-half point favorites, but that seems optimistic. The way we see it, the Steelers win only if Flacco implodes, a distinct possibility considering that this will be his first road game. Bottom line? We give the Steelers just a 45 percent chance of winning this game; thus, the pick, unfortunately, is the Ravens.

Prediction-wise The Steelyard is 3-0 on the season and 29-7 all-time.

Eagles: In review

After correctly predicting an Eagles' victory, "What are the Chances...?" is now 3-0 on the year and 29-7 all-time in terms of predicting the outcome of Steelers' games.

A few notes in the wake of Sunday's loss: Mike Tomlin was wrong not to kick a field goal on 4th and 10 from the Eagles' 22 with less than a minute to go. It almost certainly wouldn't have changed the outcome, but game management decisions like these (and Tomlin's inability to see the error of his ways) should be a concern for Steelers' fans.

Second, it's not necessarily true that the Steelers need a strong running game to pass the ball effectively. In recent years, Pittsburgh has frequently utilized a pass-first/pass-oriented approach, often with spectacular results. What is necessary for the Steelers' offense to be successful is half-decent pass protection for Ben Roethlisberger. Last year, the Steelers' ratio of sacks to pass attempts was 11.6 percent. This year it's an eye-popping 20.3 percent, putting Pittsburgh on pace to allow 64 sacks. There isn't an NFL offense or quarterback that is going to be consistently successful allowing sacks at that rate.

While the O-line is the team's greatest concern, Pittsburgh may also struggle to stop the run in coming weeks if NT Casey Hampton is out of the lineup for any length of time. Pittsburgh probably doesn't have enough depth on its D-line to play without two of its three starters for an extended period time.

Unfortunately, the Ravens have a strong running game and the potential to utilize the kind of blitz-happy pass rushing schemes that could present major problems for the Steelers on Monday night.

Casey Hampton "Physically Unable to Perform"

The Steelers have announced that Casey Hampton (conditioning), Troy Polamalu (hamstring) and Chris Kemoeatu (triceps) have all been placed on the team's Physically Unable to Perform (PUP) list and will be ineligible to practice (until removed from the list).

Steelers' Pro Bowl Update

Our favorite big boy, NT Casey Hampton, will make his fourth Pro Bowl (2003, 2005 and 2006) after being chosen as a replacement for the injured Jamal Williams (San Diego).

Hampton joins Ben Roethlisberger, Alan Faneca and James Harrison in Honolulu, Sun. 02/10.

Two Steelers players will miss the game with injuries, running back Willie Parker (broken leg) and safety Troy Polamalu (sprained knee). Aloha!

Pittsburgh 21, Seattle 0

The Steelers won in impressive fashion today, shutting out the Seahawks in spite of playing without the services of defenders Troy Polamalu (ribs), Casey Hampton (hamstring), and Bryant McFadden (ankle), not to mention starting wide receivers Hines Ward (knee) and Santonio Holmes (hamstring).

"What are the Chances ...?" is now 5-0 on the season and 18-3 all-time.

Pittsburgh 26, Buffalo 3

This afternoon the Steelers defeated the Bills 26-3 at Heinz Field. In many ways it was a more impressive victory than the one against the Browns last week, as the Bills (for the most part), did not beat themselves. The Steelers might have pitched a shutout if the officials had noticed that Buffalo's kick returner stepped out of bounds in the middle of a 63-yard kickoff return that allowed the Bills to kick a field goal.

Most impressive was the Steelers' pass protection and the fact that the team committed only two penalties (for nine yards). One has to nitpick to find anything wrong with the Steelers' performance: Ben Roethlisberger threw into double coverage on the long pass that was intercepted; it appeared to be the same play that went for a 40-yard TD versus the Browns. And the offense could have done a better job of preserving its timeouts in the first half.

Thank goodness LB James Harrison appears to be okay. Harrison suffered a neck injury on the last play of the first half when he banged his head on NT Casey Hampton's prodigious backside.

Dead Money on Steelers' Cap Now Over $10 Million

Pittsburgh has always done a solid job of managing the salary cap, keeping the amount of "dead money" counting against its cap to a bare minimum. But after cutting Joey Porter, Duce Staley, and Chris Gardocki (among others) $10.335 million of the Steelers' 2007 salary cap is now taken up by players no longer on the team [per updated figures posted on August 1 by Steelers Live 'Xtra]. With this year's cap set at $109 million that's roughly 10.5 percent of the team's allowance, a higher percentage than in years past.

In case you aren't familiar with the mechanics of the salary cap, here's an oversimplified example of how a team is charged with dead money: Let's say a player signs a four-year contract with a $1 million signing bonus and base salaries of $500,000 each year. The cap charge for his first season would be $750,000 ($500,000 for his salary and $250,000 for one-quarter of his signing bonus). If that player is released after, say, only one season with the team, the remaining prorated portion of his signing bonus ($750,000) "accelerates" and counts against the cap the following year, even though the player is no longer on the roster. Meanwhile, the remaining $1.5 million that would have been paid in salary (over the next three seasons) "disappears." This arrangement explains why the Steelers are sqeamish about signing aging veterans like Alan Faneca to long-term contracts that include enormous signing bonuses.

Of course, a certain amount of dead money is inevitable. Draft choices—like Orien Harris, Charles Davis, Cedrick Humes and Omar Jacobs—sometimes don't pan out, and veteran players (like Jeff Hartings) often retire before completing their contracts. So the Steelers certainly aren't the only team above $10 million. According to NFL.com, Detroit, Kansas City, Miami, New Orleans and Oakland are all over the $10 million mark—and there may be others. Yet, when it comes to this problem no one compares to the Houston Texans, currently saddled with more than $30 million in dead money, a serious competitive handicap.

As for players who remain on the Steelers' roster, LT Marvel Smith is scheduled to count $6.645 million against the Steelers' cap in 2007, the most of any player on the team. LG Alan Faneca, NT Casey Hampton, WR Hines Ward and DE Aaron Smith have cap charges of $6.12 million, $6 million, $5.92 million and $5.46 million, respectively.