Saturday, November 27, 2010

Bills: What are the Chances...?

The Steelers are a 6.5 point favorite over the Bills, which sounds about right to me. Pittsburgh has lost just once to Buffalo since a 24-3 home playoff loss in 1992, Bill Cowher's first year as head coach. The Bills have been very competitive over the past five weeks, and have won two games in a row (over Detroit and Cincinnati). But the Steelers figure to be a tougher foe, though Pittsburgh could stumble if it can't contain Buffalo's passing game, led by emerging WR Steve Johnson.

I'm giving the Steelers a 60 percent chance of victory. What are the Chances...? is 6-4 thus far this season and 54-24 all-time.


Sunday, November 21, 2010

Raiders: What are the Chances...?

I was wrong about the outcome of the New England game, completely underestimating how vulnerable the Steelers' pass defense is against the Patriots' offense. As a result, my record this season drops to 5-4 (53-24 all-time). Yet I still have confidence in this team, and expect the Steelers to win today, though I think the line (Steelers as 7.5 point favorites) gives Pittsburgh too much credit, especially considering Pitt's recent history against the Silver and Black. In other words, I'm expecting Mike Tomlin & Co. to surprise in a good way, and therefore giving Pittsburgh a 60 percent chance of winning.

Hopefully the Steelers won't blow a late lead, as the Jets did 42 years ago against Oakland - a game now known as the Heidi Game.


Saturday, November 13, 2010

Patriots: What are the Chances…?

The Steelers are a 4.5 point favorite over the Patriots on Sunday night, a surprisingly large spread considering 1) Tom Brady’s history of success against Pittsburgh’s defense, and 2) Pittsburgh’s injuries up and down its offensive line. Of course, New England has its own problems—-namely, Brady’s sprained foot, and a defense that hasn’t been able to get off the field on third down. I believe the Steelers are going to win, but I’m not especially confident: 55 percent chance.

What are the Chances…? Is 5-3 thus far in 2010, and 53-23 all-time.


Monday, November 08, 2010

Bengals: What are the Chances...?

I've already done a bit of analysis on tonight's game at And I do believe the Steelers will find a way to win tonight, as a five-point favorite at Cincinnati. Let's give Pittsburgh a 60 percent chance.

What are the Chances...? is 4-3 in 2010, and 52-23 all-time.