Steelers escape with 23-20 (OT) win over Ravens

After being badly outplayed for most of the game, the Steelers managed a three-point overtime win over the Ravens by scoring two touchdowns in a span of 15 seconds in the third quarter. But the win came at great cost, as several players suffered season-ending injuries, namely backup running back Rashard Mendenhall (shoulder) and starting right guard Kendall Simmons (achilles). Meanwhile, backup linebacker Andre Frazier suffered a spinal injury on the opening kickoff.

In terms of predicitons, "What are the Chances...?" is now 3-1 on the season and 29-8 all-time.

Ravens: What are the Chances…?

As was the case with the Eagles, this is a very worrisome matchup for the Steelers. After an injury-riddled 2007, the Ravens (2-0) again possess a fearsome defense — number one in the NFL, in fact — and figure to utilize the same kind of aggressive pass rushing scheme that the Eagles used to exploit the Steelers’ vulnerabilities in terms of pass protection. Theoretically, there should be opportunities for Pittsburgh in the passing game because the Ravens can be expected to blitz on virtually every down, but Ben Roethlisberger probably won’t have much time to exploit these opportunities. And, with Ravens’ defenders crowding the line of scrimmage, Pittsburgh probably won’t have much success running the ball, either. To make matters worse, Steelers’ rookie tailback Rashard Mendenhall strikes us as a mistake waiting to happen, and the Ravens will be looking to strip the ball on virtually every carry. Down the road, Mendenhall may very well prove to be an exceptional feature back, but he has shown no indication of being ready to carry the load in a prime-time matchup against a team like the Ravens. Keeping the sacks and fumbles to a minimum will be the key to winning this game.

Meanwhile, Pittsburgh suddenly has significant issues on defense. The Ravens are running the ball very, very effectively this season, and the Steelers could have problems defending the run with both NT Casey Hampton and starting DE Brett Keisel out with injuries, thereby exposing the team’s lack of depth on the defensive line. Young quarterbacks — in this case, rookie Joe Flacco — usually struggle mightily when facing the Steelers’ complicated defense for the first time, but if Baltimore runs the ball effectively and the Steelers’ offense can’t get out of its own way, the Ravens may not need much from Flacco to escape Pittsburgh with a win.

In recent years, Baltimore-Pittsburgh matchups have been decidedly one-sided affairs, with one team thrashing the other. But this game is likely to be a close, low-scoring game. While the Steelers are almost always successful at home on Monday Night Football (MNF), this could be the night the 13-game MNF home winning streak gets broken. We understand that the Steelers are five-and-a-half point favorites, but that seems optimistic. The way we see it, the Steelers win only if Flacco implodes, a distinct possibility considering that this will be his first road game. Bottom line? We give the Steelers just a 45 percent chance of winning this game; thus, the pick, unfortunately, is the Ravens.

Prediction-wise The Steelyard is 3-0 on the season and 29-7 all-time.

Eagles: What are the Chances...?

This week’s matchup is a toss-up. Both teams have top quarterbacks (Ben Roethlisberger is #1 in the NFL in passer rating with a 133.9 rating and Donovan McNabb is sixth in that category) and both possess elite defenses (led by two of the top defensive coordinators in the NFL, Dick LeBeau and Jim Johnson). Since running the ball figures to be a challenge for both teams, the game figures to be won by the team that makes more plays in the passing game. As always, pass protection will be a concern for the Steelers, but if Big Ben has time to throw the ball downfield, Santonio Holmes could exploit the Eagles’ secondary in the deep passing game.

Big Ben is 1-0 against the Eagles in his career, a 27-3 win at Heinz Field during his rookie year, when he completed 11 of 18 passes for 183 yards, throwing 2 TDs and 1 INT (109.3 passer rating). But Pittsburgh hasn’t won a game in Philadelphia since, well, it was long before the Steelers drafted Terry Bradshaw.

One advantage the Steelers have is an extra day to rest and prepare, as the Eagles played at Dallas (a 41-37 loss) this past Monday night. A little-noticed disadvantage is that Philadelphia signed former Steelers’ wide receiver Willie Reid to its practice squad back in August, perhaps in anticipation of this game. One can't imagine Reid actually playing in the game, but without a doubt he's been huddling with the Eagles' defensive coaches all week long, providing insight into the Steelers' offensive tendencies.

In the final analysis, we see the Steelers as having close to a 50 percent chance of winning, and would probably pick Pittsburgh if the game was at Heinz Field. But since it’s not, we’re predicting an Eagles victory. “What are the Chances…?” is 2-0 thus far in 2008 and 28-7 all-time.

P.S. We’re still waiting for Rashard Mendenhall to do something that leads directly to a Steelers’ loss. It’s going to happen sometime this season; it’s just a matter of when.

Texans: What are the Chances...?

Today marks the return of our "What are the Chances...?" segment, in which The Steelyard assesses the chances of the Steelers winning their upcoming game. Last year, "What ..." finished 13-4 and is 26-7 over the last two years, including last season's playoff game versus Jacksonville.

Generally speaking, Pittsburgh fans seem quite confident about beating the Texans, perhaps too confident. Houston is a much better team than people think, and the Texans' strengths (defensive line, for example) correspond to the Steelers' weaknesses (offensive line, for one).

Having said that, here are the most likely problems to emerge versus Houston: 1) The Steelers' pass protection consistently breaks down, leading to an assortment of drive-killing plays. 2) The Steelers give up big plays in the return game and/or make game changing mistakes in their own return game (see next item). 3) Rashard Mendenhall fumbles the game away, either on return(s) or out of the backfield. Back on July 22, The Steelyard addressed the potential for Mendenhall to have fumbling problems coming into the NFL, and unfortunately, our fears have been realized. Contrary to recent public pronouncements, Mike Tomlin and the other Steelers' coaches haven't forgotten about Mendenhall's fumbling issues, and you can be sure that the Texans know about Rashard's woes and will be looking to strip the ball on every touch he receives.

Our sense is that it will be a relatively low-scoring game and that the Steelers will do enough to win (let's give Pittsburgh a 55 percent chance of victory), but really, it wouldn't shock us one bit if the Texans came away with an upset. Last season, Ben Roethlisberger did an unbelievable job of covering up the play of his leaky offensive line, leading a team with, say, 6-10 talent to a 10-6 record. Big Ben may need more of that same magic this year, and in tomorrow's game in particular, if the Steelers hope to be successful.

Mendenhall, Sweed sign contracts

Yesterday, the Steelers reached contract agreements with first-round draft pick Rashard Mendenhall and second-rounder Limas Sweed. According to the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette, Mendenhall's contract is $12.55 million over five years, including $6.83 million in bonuses and guarantees of $7.125 million. Sweed received a four-year deal (typical for one of the Steelers' second-round picks), a less-than-ideal number of years, as it arguably facilitates the player leaving via free agency after four seasons (see Kendrell Bell, Antwaan Randle El and Chad Brown, for example).

Will Mendenhall have fumbling problems?

I hate to point this out, but it seems like in every Rashard Mendenhall photo or highlight tape I see, it shows our rookie running back holding the ball away from his body (as opposed to tucked in high and tight). Ever since draft day I've wondered if he'd have fumbling problems in the NFL because of this tendency. A photo from the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette Web site (above, credit to Peter Diana of the Post-Gazette) illustrates this to a certain degree.



A photo from his college days at the University of Illinois (right), shows the tendency in a much more pronounced way.

To be sure, I've never seen Mendenhall play a single game, the photos/highlights usually don't feature him running in traffic, and a search of Google images does reveal college photos with what appears to be excellent technique (as well as photos with the ball low and/or far(!) from his body). Still, this issue has given me pause since day one. Any Illini or Steelers' fans have any thoughts about this?

Steelers' Mendenhall robbed at gunpoint

The incident occurred early Monday morning in Chicago. There's no indication the robbers knew Rashard is an NFL player. Click here to read the article in the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette.

Steelers' Mendenhall strains hamstring

As was the case with Lawrence Timmons last year, this year's first-round pick, Rashard Mendenhall, suffered an injury during his first minicamp practice and will sit out the remainder of the camp.

In other news, Ben Roethlisberger will miss at least one practice, excused by head coach Mike Tomlin for undisclosed personal reasons.

Finally, the Steelers have signed a rookie free-agent wide receiver Kevin Marion, who caught 44 passes for 485 yards and one touchdown during his college career at Wake Forest.

Jersey numbers for Steelers' draft picks

In case you were wondering, the Steelers will issue the following jersey numbers to this year's draft class:

2 - QB Dennis Dixon
14 - WR Limas Sweed
29 - S Ryan Mundy
34 - RB Rashard Mendenhall
53 - LB Bruce Davis
55 - LB Mike Humpal
66 - OT Tony Hills

Steelers: First impressions of Pittsburgh's first- and second-round picks

Guest commentary by Nick Beckwith:

Since the NFL free agency system was instituted the NFL mantra of drafting “the best player available” has been largely a myth. After losing a key player teams almost reflexively draft a college player at the same position, regardless of whether the new player’s talent warrants the spot he is being taken. This is not to suggest that need should not be part of the scouting calculus, it must be. But in recent years it had begun to overwhelm all other considerations. Last year veteran NFL personnel man and former GM Floyd Reese, noting teams’ tendency to “reach” for positions of need lamented “the lost art of scouting.” Yesterday the Pittsburgh Steelers rediscovered that art. And they did it under what must have been trying circumstances.

Round 1
The Steelers' two greatest positions of need were on the lines – offensive and defensive. Offensive line looked like the position to take, with five prospects worthy of the first round ... and certainly five offensive lineman would not be selected before the Steelers picked at number 23. Five weren’t – six were, with another going later in the round. Rather than panic and select an offensive lineman of insufficient talent just to fill a need, the Steelers turned this near crisis into an opportunity. They drafted Rashard Mendenhall and came away with one of the best bargains of the first round.

Round 2
If Mendenhall was a bargain, Limas Sweed was an absolute steal. This is an extraordinary value pick. Despite missing most of his senior season with a wrist injury, some analysts still considered him the best overall wide receiver in the entire draft. And refreshingly, he is not a diva. Think Hines Ward and Marvin Harrison, not Terrell Owens and Chad Johnson.

Summary
It is hard to see how the Steelers could have done better yesterday; they skillfully turned a draft that was breaking against them to their favor.

Steelers' first-round pick is Rashard Mendenhall

With the 23rd pick in the first round the Steelers selected Rashard Mendenhall, RB, Illinois, a player they probably didn't expect to be available that late in the round. Pro Football Weekly's draft preview says, "Scouts have compared him to Herschel Walker because of his straight-linish running style and very impressive physical condition. Has sheer strength and speed and looks like an absolute phenom, but must prove that he wants to be great."