Saturday, September 26, 2009

Bengals: What are the Chances...?

I have to admit, tomorrow's game at Cincinnati makes me nervous, more so than next week's home game versus San Diego. If Cincy can overcome a slew of penalties and a couple of bad interceptions by Carson Palmer and still win by 7 points at Green Bay, I see no reason why the Bengals can't beat the Steelers in the Jungle. In fact, if Cincy can keep its collective composure for four quarters I think the Bengals might very well pull out an upset.

Of course, history is on Pittsburgh's side. Big Ben hasn't yet lost a start in Cincinnati - or the state of Ohio, for that matter - and it's not difficult to imagine the Bengals losing their discipline and coming unglued at an inopportune time. That's why I'm picking the Steelers - assigning a 55 percent chance of victory - in spite of the fact that I can't really find a quantifiable reason why they'll be successful.

"What are the Chances...." is 1-1 thus far in 2009, and 40-14 all-time.

Thursday, September 24, 2009

Troy Polamalu in The Onion

Saturday, September 19, 2009

Bears: What are the Chances...?

The Steelers are a 3-point favorite on the road against the 0-1 Bears, a line that sounds about right to me. The Bears were a mistake prone team last week against Green Bay, and Bears fans have to be concerned about how Jay Cutler & Co. struggled against the Packers' 3-4 defense (which is derivative of the 3-4 run by the Steelers). Pittsburgh has also had extra time to rest and prepare for this game, having played its opener 10 days ago. That's why I'm giving the Steelers a 60 percent chance of winning this matchup.

"What are the Chances...?" is 1-0 this year and 40-13 over the course of three-plus seasons.


Wednesday, September 09, 2009

Titans: What are the Chances…?

Today marks the return of The Steelyard’s “What are the Chances?” feature, in which I predict the outcome of the next Steelers game by estimating the likelihood of a Pittsburgh win (on a percentage basis). Last year I predicted 13 of 19 games correctly; my three-year record stands at 39-13.

Last I checked the Steelers were favored by six points over the Titans. That sounds like too many points. Much like last year in Nashville, Pittsburgh’s offensive line could struggle against the Titans’ front-seven, leading to an ineffective offense — or worse, turnovers. And avoiding turnovers is the key to the game for the Steelers, as Tennessee figures to need some easy points to come out of Pittsburgh with a win. I’m picking the Steelers (giving Pittsburgh a 55 percent chance of winning), but the Titans DL v. Steelers OL matchup definitely makes me nervous.

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