Giants: What are the Chances...?

Yet another extremely difficult game to project a winner; this game seems like a toss-up. From the Steelers’ perspective the two keys to the game are: Protecting Ben Roethlisberger and keeping Plaxico Burress in check. It wouldn’t surprise me if Pittsburgh’s pass protection falters much as it did against Philadelphia, if not quite to the same degree. Steelers fans also know that a motivated Plax is a dangerous Plax, and this will be a statement game for Burress, who’s probably still jacked up about Michigan State beating Michigan in Ann Arbor yesterday.

Thus far, the Steelers haven’t had trouble plugging in substitutes for players lost to injury, but one wonders if this is the week the losses catch up to them. In particular, I’m concerned about the loss of CB Bryant McFadden and WR Santonio Holmes, and if DE Aaron Smith doesn’t suit up that could also have significant implications in terms of stopping the Giants’ powerful running attack.

My heart says Big Ben will find a way to win this game (as he finds a way almost every week), but my head says the Giants’ pass rush (and the Steelers’ injuries/inactives) will enable Big Blue to prevail. I’m giving the Steelers a 48 percent chance of winning.

That said, it's time to address the Eli or Ben argument. The idea that Eli Manning has surpassed Roethlisberger as a QB is borderline silly. Yes, Eli played better than Ben in their respective Super Bowls (Ben was only 23, however), and Manning is almost certainly a more dangerous two-minute/hurry up QB, but other than that Roethlisberger is a significantly better player. In terms of numbers, Big Ben is in the top five all-time in terms of key stats like winning percentage and passer rating (virtually identical to Tom Brady). I'd be curious to see where Ben would stand if one takes the motorcycle accident/appendectomy/concussion season out of the equation. He might very well be #1 in NFL history in every important QB indicator.

The funny thing is that Big Ben has improved noticeably since his Super Bowl season. What is most impressive now is how he has managed to thrive, in spite of playing behind one of the three or four worst pass protecting offensive lines in the league. If Eli Manning got the "protection" — and I use that word loosely — that Ben has been getting, Giants fans would have booed Eli out of New York by now.

Eagles: What are the Chances...?

This week’s matchup is a toss-up. Both teams have top quarterbacks (Ben Roethlisberger is #1 in the NFL in passer rating with a 133.9 rating and Donovan McNabb is sixth in that category) and both possess elite defenses (led by two of the top defensive coordinators in the NFL, Dick LeBeau and Jim Johnson). Since running the ball figures to be a challenge for both teams, the game figures to be won by the team that makes more plays in the passing game. As always, pass protection will be a concern for the Steelers, but if Big Ben has time to throw the ball downfield, Santonio Holmes could exploit the Eagles’ secondary in the deep passing game.

Big Ben is 1-0 against the Eagles in his career, a 27-3 win at Heinz Field during his rookie year, when he completed 11 of 18 passes for 183 yards, throwing 2 TDs and 1 INT (109.3 passer rating). But Pittsburgh hasn’t won a game in Philadelphia since, well, it was long before the Steelers drafted Terry Bradshaw.

One advantage the Steelers have is an extra day to rest and prepare, as the Eagles played at Dallas (a 41-37 loss) this past Monday night. A little-noticed disadvantage is that Philadelphia signed former Steelers’ wide receiver Willie Reid to its practice squad back in August, perhaps in anticipation of this game. One can't imagine Reid actually playing in the game, but without a doubt he's been huddling with the Eagles' defensive coaches all week long, providing insight into the Steelers' offensive tendencies.

In the final analysis, we see the Steelers as having close to a 50 percent chance of winning, and would probably pick Pittsburgh if the game was at Heinz Field. But since it’s not, we’re predicting an Eagles victory. “What are the Chances…?” is 2-0 thus far in 2008 and 28-7 all-time.

P.S. We’re still waiting for Rashard Mendenhall to do something that leads directly to a Steelers’ loss. It’s going to happen sometime this season; it’s just a matter of when.

Steelers' second-round pick is Limas Sweed

Another player the team didn't expect to be available this late in the draft.... In round two the Steelers added Limas Sweed, WR, Texas. Obviously, wide receiver is a huge area of need as going into this weekend Pittsburgh had no proven NFL caliber wideouts on its roster after Hines Ward, Santonio Holmes and Nate Washington, leaving at least two spots open. In Pro Football Weekly's draft preview Sweed's bio concludes: "If he continues to make strides in the pros like he did in college he could be a legitimate No. 1 receiver."

Should Colbert be on the hot seat?

Guest contribution courtesy of Nick Beckwith ...

Pittsburgh’s recent first round successes — Troy Polamalu (2003), Ben Roethlisberger (2004), Heath Miller (2005) and Santonio Holmes (2006) — have masked a problem, namely relatively poor drafting in later rounds. Over the last five years the team has drafted only six starters, and Brett Keisel (7th round) is one of the few late round players to blossom into a significant contributor. Therefore, if director of football operations Kevin Colbert is not on the hot seat, his chair should at least be a bit warm.

It is easy to criticize the man in front of the big board; it is more difficult to offer solutions. But I have, if not a solution, at least a new approach, which is simply the re-emphasis of an old approach. Pittsburgh must draft Steelers — players of high character and a strong work ethic who also display a love of hitting. I advocate drafting players whose idea of “going clubbing” is spending four hours in the free-weight section of Gold’s Gym.

Chuck Noll was of the opinion that his job was not to motivate players, but to teach motivated young men to be better players. I’m not saying the Steelers should ignore ‘triangle numbers’ (height, weight, 40-yard dash time) or the results of the various athletic tests of the Combine. I’m saying that football is a team game, and a united warrior attitude is the most important among many determinants of wins and championships. While so-called project players of great potential should not be eschewed, on-field production should be the defining characteristic of most of the players acquired in this (or any) Pittsburgh Steelers draft.

Wilson released following arrest

The Steelers have released veteran WR Cedrick Wilson in the wake of Wilson's arrest for assault, harassment and disorderly conduct on Wednesday night. Considering that Wilson has been involved in at least one other unflattering incident since joining the team, coupled with the fact that he is entering the last year of his contract, it's no surprise that Rooney & Co. decided to part ways with him. However, the move leaves the team very thin at wide receiver, with Hines Ward, Santonio Holmes and Nate Washington the only proven wideouts still on the roster.

Roethlisberger's underrated season

When Steelers' QB Ben Roethlisberger was named to the Pro Bowl earlier this season many sports media pundits questioned whether other AFC QB's like David Garrard (Jacksonville) or even Derek Anderson (Cleveland) would have been more deserving. Sorry folks, Roethlisberger is more deserving of a Pro Bowl berth than any other QB in the league, excepting Tom Brady, of course.

By way of comparison, Brady finished the regular season with 50 touchdown passes and just eight interceptions (117.2 passer rating). Roethlisberger threw 32 TD passes and only 11 interceptions (104.1 rating). Compare those numbers to those of Garrard (18 TD's, 3 INT's, 102.2 rating) and Anderson (29 TD's, 19 INT's, 82.5 rating). Then consider that Roethlisberger received some of the worst pass protection in the NFL. Big Ben was sacked a David Carr-like 47 times in only 404 pass attempts (one sack for every 8.6 attempts), while Garrard went down 21 times in 325 attempts (once every 15.4 attempts) and Anderson a mere 14 times in 527 attempts (once per 37.6 attempts).

It's also worth comparing Roethlisberger's numbers to other QB's who received inadequate protection. Only two other quarterbacks were sacked more than 37 times in 2007. Donovan McNabb (Philadelphia) was sacked 44 times in 473 attempts (once per 10.75 attempts) and posted an 89.9 passer rating, while Jon Kitna (Detroit) absorbed a league-high 51 sacks in 561 attempts (one sack per 11 attempts) and finished with an 80.9 rating.

Some might argue that Roethlisberger benefitted from a strong running game, as Pittsburgh's feature back, Willie Parker, gained more than 1,300 yards. Yet, Parker managed a relatively pedestrian 4.1 yards per carry (far below most of the league's other rushing leaders), and his impressive yardage total is mostly a function of his high number of carries. Meanwhile, Big Ben's receivers are hardly an impressive lot: Hines Ward may one day be enshrined in the Hall of Fame, but at this point in his career, he's a move-the-chains type of possession receiver. And like Santonio Holmes (Pittsburgh's only legitimate down-the-field threat), Ward has not been able to stay healthy this year. Finally, tight end Heath Miller is a solid receiver, but rarely generates a big play.

The bottom line is that Roethlisberger has done more with less than any other QB in the league. If the Steelers somehow find a way to upgrade the talent around him, one can expect even better performances from Big Ben in coming seasons.

Bengals: What are the Chances...?

This is a very difficult game to project. The Steelers, a 7-point favorite, are expected to win, but there are plenty of reasons to think that Cincy will prevail. Not only has Pittsburgh played poorly in recent weeks, Cincinnati is coming off its best game of the season, a 35-6 drubbing of Tennessee. And the Bengals have had success in Pittsburgh in recent years, winning three of the past four meetings at Heinz Field. Moreover, with WR Santonio Holmes out--and LT Marvel Smith likely out too--Pittsburgh could have trouble keeping up with the Bengals’ high-powered offense (5th in the NFL). Of course, Pittsburgh won the first meeting of the year, but back then our defense did not have to contend with Cincy’s full complement of wideouts. Now that Chris Henry is back from suspension, it could be a lot more difficult to defend the Bengals’ passing game. And having played on Monday night, the Steelers have had less time to prepare than the Bengals, and preparation time differential has been a factor in other Steelers’ games this season.

On the plus side, the Steelers are still undefeated at Heinz Field this year (6-0), while the Bengals are 1-4 on the road. And a sloppy track/bad weather would seem to work in Pittsburgh’s favor. But until Pittsburgh shows signs of coming out of its funk on offense, it’s difficult to pick the Steelers. We’d love to be wrong on this, but "What are the Chances…?" is giving the Steelers a 45 percent chance of defeating the Bengals.

"What are the Chances…?" is 9-2 this season and 22-5 all-time.

Pittsburgh 21, Seattle 0

The Steelers won in impressive fashion today, shutting out the Seahawks in spite of playing without the services of defenders Troy Polamalu (ribs), Casey Hampton (hamstring), and Bryant McFadden (ankle), not to mention starting wide receivers Hines Ward (knee) and Santonio Holmes (hamstring).

"What are the Chances ...?" is now 5-0 on the season and 18-3 all-time.

Fantasy Draft Board "Mis-Underestimates" Steelers?

Today, Pro Football Weekly (PFW) unveiled its offseason fantasy draft board, ranking quarterbacks, running backs, tight ends, placekickers and defenses. With the exception of Willie Parker (#8 at RB and #9 overall) the fantasy talent evaluators at PFW don't think highly of the Steelers' offensive players. Ben Roethlisberger and Charlie Batch are ranked 17th and 54th, respectively, at the QB position. Najeh Davenport and Kevan Barlow are 60th and 89th on the RB board. And Hines Ward, Santonio Holmes, Cedrick Wilson and Nate Washington are 18th, 41st, 83rd and 93rd, respectively, at wide receiver. Meanwhile, PFW has Heath Miller rated #22 among tight ends and PK Jeff Reed ranked 22nd among kickers. The Steelers are listed as the seventh-best fantasy defense, however.

Click here to view the draft board.

Low Expectations For Timmons and Woodley?

In "The Way We Hear It" section of the new issue of Pro Football Weekly, the PFW editors question whether Steelers' first-round pick Lawrence Timmons or second-round pick LaMarr Woodley can be impact players as rookies. Steelers fans don't have particularly high hopes for Timmons, because he's young, inexperienced, and suffered a serious groin injury at the outset of minicamp, which makes everyone wonder if he was in shape when he arrived at camp. Fans seem more optimistic about Woodley, but the PFW blurb notes that "at least one source close to the [Steelers] observed that Woodley’s reaction time was a little slower than it needed to be in some of the workouts."

Why is the status of the rookies so important? One could argue that aside from the health of QB Ben Roethlisberger and the performance of the offensive line, the most important factor in determining the success of the 2007 Steelers will be the play of the rookie class. Last season Pittsburgh got virtually nothing—nothing positive, at least—out if its rookies during the early part of the season. Only after first-rounder Santonio Holmes and third-rounder Anthony Smith began to make plays did the Steelers begin winning games. And other than punter Daniel Sepulveda, Timmons and Woodley would seem to be the most likely rookies to make an instant impact. Click here to read the PFW piece.

Unhappy Returns?

Yesterday, the Steelers claimed KR Dan Sheldon off waivers, a day after having been cut by the Atlanta Falcons. Both the Steelers and the Philadelphia Eagles put in a claim for the former Cologne Centurion (NFL Europe), but Sheldon went to Pittsburgh because the Eagles posted a better record than the Steelers in 2006.

The claim might indicate that Pittsburgh is concerned ith the state of its return game, or the team might simply be looking for a player who can raise the level of competition in training camp. Another possibility is that the coaches wanted an extra body to take reps in camp and return kicks during the club's five preseason games, thereby preserving the limited options the team has at kick returner. After all, Sheldon has never played in a regular-season NFL game (and may have injury concerns of his own), so he's probably a longshot to make the team.

Ideally, second-year WR Willie Reid will be the Steelers' primary kickoff and punt returner in 2007, but foot injuries threaten to derail Reid's career before it even gets started. Fellow wideout Santonio Holmes could excel as a returner, but as the #2 wide receiver the coaches would probably prefer not to expose him to injury on special teams. That leaves backup RB Najeh Davenport as the next best option on kickoff returns (21.5 yards per return in 2006), with veteran receiver Cedrick Wilson a possible stopgap option on either punts or kickoffs. But if Reid can't play the Steelers may be forced to make a trade to bring in a veteran return man.