Bengals: What are the Chances...?

The Steelers are 10.5 point favorites in this game, but not everything points to a romp — or even a win. For one, Cincinnati is on a roll, with a win and a tie in its past two games. And Cincy has emerged victorious in two of its last three visits to Heinz Field, which ought to give Steelers’ fans pause.

On the other hand, without QB Carson Palmer, the Bengals’ offense probably isn’t capable of scoring many points against the Steelers’ number one ranked defense. And the Bengals’ front seven probably doesn’t have the talent to exploit the Steelers’ lone weakness on offense — the offensive line.

Cincinnati also played a full five quarters against a physical Philadelphia Eagles team this past Sunday, hardly ideal for a team playing on the road just four days later. The Steelers have an 80 percent chance of winning this game.

Pittsburgh 11, San Diego 10

First time in NFL history a game has ended with this final score. The Steelers can consider themselves lucky to have escaped with a win considering the number of penalties the team committed and the initially shaky play of the offensive line.

A few notes: It was a bad decision by Mike Tomlin to attempt a field goal following the first drive. He must know that no kicker has ever converted a 50+ yard field goal in the history of Heinz Field, and with the weather and field conditions today, it's unlikely that was going to change. But one can't blame the Steelers for not sneaking Big Ben on 4th and goal at the end of the first quarter. No reason to put his shoulder in further jeopardy in that spot. Finally, Anthony Smith didn't do himself any favors getting called for fair catch interference.

With the victory The Steelyard is 7-3 on the season and 33-10 all-time.

Eagles: What are the Chances...?

This week’s matchup is a toss-up. Both teams have top quarterbacks (Ben Roethlisberger is #1 in the NFL in passer rating with a 133.9 rating and Donovan McNabb is sixth in that category) and both possess elite defenses (led by two of the top defensive coordinators in the NFL, Dick LeBeau and Jim Johnson). Since running the ball figures to be a challenge for both teams, the game figures to be won by the team that makes more plays in the passing game. As always, pass protection will be a concern for the Steelers, but if Big Ben has time to throw the ball downfield, Santonio Holmes could exploit the Eagles’ secondary in the deep passing game.

Big Ben is 1-0 against the Eagles in his career, a 27-3 win at Heinz Field during his rookie year, when he completed 11 of 18 passes for 183 yards, throwing 2 TDs and 1 INT (109.3 passer rating). But Pittsburgh hasn’t won a game in Philadelphia since, well, it was long before the Steelers drafted Terry Bradshaw.

One advantage the Steelers have is an extra day to rest and prepare, as the Eagles played at Dallas (a 41-37 loss) this past Monday night. A little-noticed disadvantage is that Philadelphia signed former Steelers’ wide receiver Willie Reid to its practice squad back in August, perhaps in anticipation of this game. One can't imagine Reid actually playing in the game, but without a doubt he's been huddling with the Eagles' defensive coaches all week long, providing insight into the Steelers' offensive tendencies.

In the final analysis, we see the Steelers as having close to a 50 percent chance of winning, and would probably pick Pittsburgh if the game was at Heinz Field. But since it’s not, we’re predicting an Eagles victory. “What are the Chances…?” is 2-0 thus far in 2008 and 28-7 all-time.

P.S. We’re still waiting for Rashard Mendenhall to do something that leads directly to a Steelers’ loss. It’s going to happen sometime this season; it’s just a matter of when.

The Green, Green Grass of Home

Citing the overwhelming support of its players, Heinz Field executive director of stadium development, Jimmie Sacco, announced that management has decided to stick with a grass surface for its playing field. Even though NFL Players Association surveys consistently put Heinz Field near the bottom of the league in playing surfaces Steeler management may very well decide to stick with the DDGrassMaster mix. While this "grass secured with fiber" mix has been the playing surface for most of Heinz Field's seven years, management is also considering pure grass or sod.

Widow brings husband's ashes to Heinz Field

Nice story from the Post-Gazette about a New Hampshire widow who brought her husband's ashes to Heinz Field for the game against the Jaguars. In life, her husband - a hardcore Steelers' fan - never had the opportunity to attend a game in person.

Jaguars: What are the Chances...?

The Steelers are undefeated at Heinz Field this season, one of only two NFL teams (Patriots) stil unbeaten at home. It won't be easy to go 8-0, however, as the Jaguars present a solid defense (even without Marcus Stroud, now on IR) and the third highest rated QB in the league in David Garrard. This week "What are the Chances...?" give the Steelers just a 45 percent chance of defeating the Jaguars based on: Ben Roethlisberger's less than ideal health; the Steelers' less-than-inspiring history versus Jacksonville; and the fact that teams have fared very poorly this season the week after losing to the Patriots.

Bengals: What are the Chances...?

This is a very difficult game to project. The Steelers, a 7-point favorite, are expected to win, but there are plenty of reasons to think that Cincy will prevail. Not only has Pittsburgh played poorly in recent weeks, Cincinnati is coming off its best game of the season, a 35-6 drubbing of Tennessee. And the Bengals have had success in Pittsburgh in recent years, winning three of the past four meetings at Heinz Field. Moreover, with WR Santonio Holmes out--and LT Marvel Smith likely out too--Pittsburgh could have trouble keeping up with the Bengals’ high-powered offense (5th in the NFL). Of course, Pittsburgh won the first meeting of the year, but back then our defense did not have to contend with Cincy’s full complement of wideouts. Now that Chris Henry is back from suspension, it could be a lot more difficult to defend the Bengals’ passing game. And having played on Monday night, the Steelers have had less time to prepare than the Bengals, and preparation time differential has been a factor in other Steelers’ games this season.

On the plus side, the Steelers are still undefeated at Heinz Field this year (6-0), while the Bengals are 1-4 on the road. And a sloppy track/bad weather would seem to work in Pittsburgh’s favor. But until Pittsburgh shows signs of coming out of its funk on offense, it’s difficult to pick the Steelers. We’d love to be wrong on this, but "What are the Chances…?" is giving the Steelers a 45 percent chance of defeating the Bengals.

"What are the Chances…?" is 9-2 this season and 22-5 all-time.

Steelers: Keep it real

Reading "Steelers want to keep it natural" in today's Tribune-Review, it's clear that the Steelers' players would prefer to stay with grass at Heinz Field.

And while the playing conditions on Monday night were far from ideal the NFL has seen worse. Much worse. Recall September 30, 2001 at Carolina's Ericsson Stadium. And on August 13, 2001 a preseason game at Philadelphia's Veterans Stadium had to be cancelled.

Here We Go Steely, Here We Go!

Steelers fans have been awfully hard on the team's new mascot, Steely McBeam, since the big guy was introduced earlier this week. At least one blogger has started a petition asking the organization to make Steely disappear. And message boards routinely express the sentiment that the Steelers don't need any sort of mascot whatsoever.

But like it or not, McBeam is here to stay. After all, the Rooneys aren't going to jettison Steely just because of a little public pressure. And to be fair, it's difficult to develop a lovable mascot when your inspiration is a steelworker.

So maybe we ought to demonstrate a little patience and throw our support behind McBeam, who will presumably make his in-game debut tomorrow night at Heinz Field when the Steelers host the Green Bay Packers. As it is, being a mascot is a dangerous and somewhat thankless job, and Steely probably went thru hell to get the gig, as we previously chronicled here.

So tomorrow night, maybe the fans can take up a chant in Steely's honor: Here We Go Steely, Here We Go!