Eagles: What are the Chances...?

This week’s matchup is a toss-up. Both teams have top quarterbacks (Ben Roethlisberger is #1 in the NFL in passer rating with a 133.9 rating and Donovan McNabb is sixth in that category) and both possess elite defenses (led by two of the top defensive coordinators in the NFL, Dick LeBeau and Jim Johnson). Since running the ball figures to be a challenge for both teams, the game figures to be won by the team that makes more plays in the passing game. As always, pass protection will be a concern for the Steelers, but if Big Ben has time to throw the ball downfield, Santonio Holmes could exploit the Eagles’ secondary in the deep passing game.

Big Ben is 1-0 against the Eagles in his career, a 27-3 win at Heinz Field during his rookie year, when he completed 11 of 18 passes for 183 yards, throwing 2 TDs and 1 INT (109.3 passer rating). But Pittsburgh hasn’t won a game in Philadelphia since, well, it was long before the Steelers drafted Terry Bradshaw.

One advantage the Steelers have is an extra day to rest and prepare, as the Eagles played at Dallas (a 41-37 loss) this past Monday night. A little-noticed disadvantage is that Philadelphia signed former Steelers’ wide receiver Willie Reid to its practice squad back in August, perhaps in anticipation of this game. One can't imagine Reid actually playing in the game, but without a doubt he's been huddling with the Eagles' defensive coaches all week long, providing insight into the Steelers' offensive tendencies.

In the final analysis, we see the Steelers as having close to a 50 percent chance of winning, and would probably pick Pittsburgh if the game was at Heinz Field. But since it’s not, we’re predicting an Eagles victory. “What are the Chances…?” is 2-0 thus far in 2008 and 28-7 all-time.

P.S. We’re still waiting for Rashard Mendenhall to do something that leads directly to a Steelers’ loss. It’s going to happen sometime this season; it’s just a matter of when.

Unhappy Returns?

Yesterday, the Steelers claimed KR Dan Sheldon off waivers, a day after having been cut by the Atlanta Falcons. Both the Steelers and the Philadelphia Eagles put in a claim for the former Cologne Centurion (NFL Europe), but Sheldon went to Pittsburgh because the Eagles posted a better record than the Steelers in 2006.

The claim might indicate that Pittsburgh is concerned ith the state of its return game, or the team might simply be looking for a player who can raise the level of competition in training camp. Another possibility is that the coaches wanted an extra body to take reps in camp and return kicks during the club's five preseason games, thereby preserving the limited options the team has at kick returner. After all, Sheldon has never played in a regular-season NFL game (and may have injury concerns of his own), so he's probably a longshot to make the team.

Ideally, second-year WR Willie Reid will be the Steelers' primary kickoff and punt returner in 2007, but foot injuries threaten to derail Reid's career before it even gets started. Fellow wideout Santonio Holmes could excel as a returner, but as the #2 wide receiver the coaches would probably prefer not to expose him to injury on special teams. That leaves backup RB Najeh Davenport as the next best option on kickoff returns (21.5 yards per return in 2006), with veteran receiver Cedrick Wilson a possible stopgap option on either punts or kickoffs. But if Reid can't play the Steelers may be forced to make a trade to bring in a veteran return man.