Browns: What are the Chances...?

Back in early 2004, as the NFL draft approached, the Browns made a fateful decision to acquire Trent Dilfer, signing the veteran QB to a four-year contract. The move essentially precluded Cleveland from selecting Ben Roethlisberger, who was still available with the sixth pick in that year's draft. (Instead, the Browns chose a tight end, Kellen Winslow Jr., a good player but not a franchise-changing performer.) Cleveland has been paying for that mistake ever since, as Roethlisberger has posted a 40-16 regular season record over four-plus seasons and is 7-0 against the Browns (including 4-0 at Cleveland Browns Stadium).

Tomorrow the Browns will try to contain Roethlisberger once more, and unless Cleveland generates a fierce pash rush, its shaky defensive backfield figures to be exposed by Big Ben. But the key to the game for the Steelers will be to keep both Braylon Edwards (WR) and Joshua Cribbs (KR) from making big plays. Without "splash" plays from those two players it seems unlikely that the Browns will be able to keep pace with Pittsburgh's balanced attack.

The Steelyard predicts a win for the Steelers, giving Pittsburgh a 65 percent chance of winning this game. "What are the Chances...?" is 1-0 this season and 27-7 all-time.

Browns: What are the Chances…?

On Sunday the Steelers play a Cleveland team that has won three consecutive games and seems poised to contend for a playoff spot, especially when one considers the Browns’ soft remaining schedule. However, it’s worth noting that most of Cleveland’s success has come against teams with losing records, and it remains to be seen whether Romeo Crennel & Co. are ready for prime-time, so to speak.

There is no doubt that WR Braylon Edwards and TE Kellen Winslow present a serious challenge for Pittsburgh’s secondary, and both figure to make their share of big plays. Edwards and Winslow have enabled QB Derek Anderson to put up big numbers at times, but again, most of his success has come against lesser teams. One major difference between this game and the earlier meeting is that the Steelers’ pass rushers probably won’t be able to exploit rookie LT Joe Thomas like they did in the opener. Thomas has since been playing at an All-Pro level and he’s a big reason why Cleveland’s offense has been having success.

On the other side of the ball, the Browns’ defense could again have a lot of problems stopping Ben Roethlisberger & Co., especially when the Steelers attack via the pass. On the other hand, if it turns out that Big Ben’s mobility is affected by monday night’s hip pointer the offense could be compromised somewhat, especially in light of the struggles often experienced by the Steelers’ O-line.

Our sense is that Cleveland is definitely a team on the rise, but still not likely to beat the Steelers in Pittsburgh. We estimate the Steelers’ chances of winning this game at 65 percent, our optimism muted somewhat by uncertainty about Big Ben’s health, the short preparation time, and the fact that Cleveland has been on a roll.

What are the Chances…? is 7-1 this season and 20-4 all-time.