Chargers: What are the Chances...?

The Steelers have been a very difficult team to read this year, and this game is no exception. One expects that Pittsburgh will find a way to win, unless Ben Roethlisberger isn't sufficiently recovered from his concussion and the offense makes the kind of big mistakes that place our #1 defense in difficult situations. But the Chargers' history in Pittsburgh is a little scary; 0-13 during the regular season, but 2-0 in the postseason, including the crushing AFC Championship game loss in 1994. That defeat was particularly horrible for me personally, as I had Super Bowl tickets that year, and ventured down to Miami to watch San Diego get clobbered by the San Francisco 49ers.

We'll give the Steelers a 60 percent chance of winning today. The Steelyard finished 10-6 prediction-wise in 2008, and is 36-13 all-time.

Big Ben is a "Super" singer

All the Pittsburgh Steelers fans watching the Super Bowl (daydreaming about the last Super Bowl that actually meant something to us) were treated to a comforting sight, our own Big Ben in uniform starring in his first Super Bowl commercial for "American Idol."

Check it out here...

Jaguars 29, Steelers 22

It wasn't hard to see this loss coming ("What are the Chances...?" is now 11-3 on the season and 24-6 all-time in terms of prognostication). The good news is that Pittsburgh still controls its own destiny: Two wins and the Steelers win the AFC North -- guaranteed. The bad news is that the last two games are on the road and Mike Tomlin & Co. are 2-4 away from home this season.

I imagine that Pittsburgh fans are now griping that the team's defense is "the worst" and "looks old," and that our O-line is "an embarrassment." Get over it. We've known all along that this team probably wouldn't be good enough to compete for a Super Bowl title. Certainly, Big Ben is doing a great job of covering up the team's deficiencies on offense, and it's rare that a QB is consistently able to do that in today's NFL.

Steelers v. Patriots: Line now at 10.5 points

The opening line on the Steelers/Patriots game was 13.5 points, but over the course of the week it has fallen to 10.5 points. It has been a long time since the Steelers have faced odds like this. The Steelers were 12.5 point underdogs for Bill Cowher's first game, way back in September 1992 - a game the Steelers won, 29-24.

Another historical note worth mentioning: The 1984 San Franciso 49ers finished 18-1 and won the Super Bowl that year. The 49ers' only loss came against the Steelers at Candlestick Park.

Thankful for Big Ben? Me too.

In an earlier post The Steelyard provided a sneak preview of the new Dan Rooney book, "My 75 Years with the Pittsburgh Steelers and the NFL" (Da Capo), in which Rooney lets it slip that he intervened to make sure the Steelers drafted Ben Roethlisberger with the 11th pick of the 2004 draft (instead of OT Shawn Andrews, who Bill Cowher apparently preferred). Thank goodness Rooney stepped in and backed Director of Football Operations Kevin Colbert, who also championed Roethlisberger. This pivotal decision enabled the Steelers to win a Super Bowl, and may well afford the organization the opportunity to win more Super Bowls in the next six or eight years.

Interestingly, it seems like many Steelers' fans underestimate the value of Big Ben. It's hard to fathom how fans can criticize him and say things like, "Big Ben makes me crazy sometimes" or "He makes too many mistakes." Have these fans lost their minds? Or have they simply become spoiled? I'll go on record right now and say that Roethlisberger is already the best QB in franchise history. In this era he may never win four Super Bowls like Terry Bradshaw did but that doesn't change the fact that he has been better ... sooner ... than just about any QB in NFL history. His career record is 39-14 (which rivals the winning percentage of Tom Brady) and if one eliminates the 2006 (accident-appendectomy-concussion) season he's lost a grand total of only six starts (32-6). His career yards per attempt is among the best in NFL history and his post-season record is 5-1. Like every NFL QB he throws interceptions from time to time, but what goes unmentioned is that he fumbles the ball much less often than other QB's. And, as columnist Stan Savran explains in "Thankful for Big Ben", he makes the talent around him look better than it really is.

I think the Steelers have to be concerned that his career may be relatively short, thanks to the cumulative effect of the injuries he has suffered. But let's make no mistake: Big Ben is on course for the Hall of Fame, even if he can't get elected to a Pro Bowl.

History Demonstrates That Patriots' Fans Should Root For a Loss

Next week the undefeated New England Patriots will play the undefeated Indianapolis Colts in one of the most anticipated regular season games in history. A lot of NFL fans and media act as if the Patriots are a shoo-in to win the Super Bowl, and some even believe Tom Brady & Co. will go undefeated.

While the Patriots are certainly the best team in football right now, it’s worth reminding folks that the best team doesn’t always reach the Super Bowl, much less win it.

One need look no further than recent history: Last year the Colts won the Super Bowl but the Chargers were clearly the class of the league. In 2005 the Colts were tops, yet the Steelers knocked them out in the divisional round en route to a Super Bowl title. In 2004, Pittsburgh posted a 15-1 regular season mark, but the Patriots walked away with the Super Bowl title.

This is a “tradition,” if you will, that goes back a long way. Many Steelers’ fans regard their 1976 team as the best in franchise history. That year Pittsburgh rolled into the playoffs on a nine-game winning streak in which the defense posted six shutouts and allowed an average of three--that’s right, three!--points per game. Yet, a third consecutive Super Bowl appearance proved to be elusive.

Of course, some will argue that this Patriots’ offense is so good that it makes New England unstoppable. Not so fast. Recall that the 1998 Minnesota Vikings (led by then-rookie Randy Moss) hold the record for most points (556) scored in a season, yet that team bowed out of the playoffs in its first playoff game. And it goes without saying that a major injury to Brady or several of New England’s key receivers could dramatically compromise the team’s effectiveness on offense.

While it might seem counterintuitive, New England’s chances of winning a Super Bowl would be greatly enhanced if it lost a game … and better sooner rather than later. (Preferably the loss shouldn't come against Indy, however, as that could have implications for home field advantage). Teams that are undefeated as late as December have to contend with additional scrutiny and media attention, neither of which is conducive to winning a championship. Plus, a loss would remind New England that it is not invincible.

Let’s assume for a second that the Patriots are 16-0 heading into the playoffs. What happens if New England falls behind early in its first playoff game? Will the team play “tight” knowing that an undefeated season could all be for naught? Will playoff opponents play like they have nothing to lose, since everyone will be expecting the Pats to romp?

That’s why the best thing that could happen to the Patriots is a loss. Recall that the 1984 San Francisco 49ers finished 18-1 en route to a Super Bowl title. One might argue that the key game was a Week 7 home loss to the Steelers, which took the undefeated season option off the table and enabled a much smoother ride to the Super Bowl.

The Patriots’ players can’t play to lose, but that shouldn’t stop New England fans from rooting for a single defeat.

LeBeau Gives Tomlin a Chance to Succeed

Fans may have some misgivings about the new direction of the Steelers' offense, but rest assured the team's defense is still in good hands. In fact, one could make the argument that much of Bill Cowher's success was directly attributable to Dick LeBeau, whom new head coach Mike Tomlin has wisely retained as defensive coordinator.

Consider this: In the six seasons in which LeBeau served as Cowher's defensive coordinator the Steelers compiled a 75-34 record (69% winning percentage), including a 9-4 record in the post-season. In five of those six seasons the Steelers qualified for the playoffs, reaching the Super Bowl on two occasions. In the remaining nine seasons during Cowher's 15-year reign the Steelers compiled a not-nearly-as-impressive 86-65-1 record (57% winning percentage), emerging victorious in just three of eight playoff games. Never mind the fact that the Steelers went 33-19 from 1992-94, when LeBeau served as Cowher's secondary coach. In other words, Cowher's career record without LeBeau is a mere 53-46-1.

All of this bodes well for Tomlin, who should reap the benefits of LeBeau's defensive expertise. If the new offense can hold up its end of the bargain Pittsburgh's first season under Tomlin could be more successful than most prognosticators expect.