Bengals: What are the Chances...?

The Steelers are 10.5 point favorites in this game, but not everything points to a romp — or even a win. For one, Cincinnati is on a roll, with a win and a tie in its past two games. And Cincy has emerged victorious in two of its last three visits to Heinz Field, which ought to give Steelers’ fans pause.

On the other hand, without QB Carson Palmer, the Bengals’ offense probably isn’t capable of scoring many points against the Steelers’ number one ranked defense. And the Bengals’ front seven probably doesn’t have the talent to exploit the Steelers’ lone weakness on offense — the offensive line.

Cincinnati also played a full five quarters against a physical Philadelphia Eagles team this past Sunday, hardly ideal for a team playing on the road just four days later. The Steelers have an 80 percent chance of winning this game.

Bengals: What are the Chances...?

The Steelers are 9.5 point favorites over the Bengals - as it should be. If nothing else, with Carson Palmer sidelined by an elbow injury, the Steelers have a huge advantage at quarterback with Ben Roethlisberger going against Ryan Fitzpatrick. Pittsburgh has also had two weeks to prepare for the game, while the Bengals played last Sunday, a 26-14 loss at the New York Jets.

The keys to the game for the Steelers are: To keep Cincy's wide receiver trio of Chad (Ocho Cinco) Johnson, T.J. Houshmandzadeh, and Chris Henry from making big plays in the passing game, and to limit the return yards of Bengals' KOR Glenn Holt, who leads the NFL with 744 total return yards, and is on pace to generate close to 2,000 kickoff return yards. If the Steelers find success in these two aspects of the game, the rest should take care of itself. Let's give the Steelers a 75 percent chance of winning this game.

The ramifications of extending Big Ben's contract

Our last post ("Steelers' plans for extending Roethlisberger's contract") generated a lot of reader comments here at The Steelyard. While everyone seemed to agree that the Steelers should extend Big Ben's deal, no one could seem to agree "when" would be the right time. So maybe it's time to go over some of the ramifications of keeping Roethlisberger in the fold long-term.

This season Roethlisberger's base salary is just a shade over one million dollars and his salary cap charge is $2.276 million. In 2008 he is scheduled to earn $1.357 million (cap charge $2.627 million), and in 2009 $1.707 million (cap charge $2.977 million). (These scheduled cap charges are lower than they will be in actual fact, but only an insider would know what contract bonuses Ben is earning; those have to be added after-the-fact). Regardless, the point is that right now Roethlisberger is a bargain relative to his performance. As soon as he signs an extension he is going to be very expensive, and that will have ramifications in terms of the Steelers' ability to sign and retain other players.

So contrary to what some fans seem to believe, extending Roethlisberger's contract is NOT going to free up money or cap space. In fact, the impending change in Ben's contract status has already been affecting the Steelers' player-personnel moves for some time now. Going forward the Steelers will not be able to re-sign certain veterans (Alan Faneca being the first "victim" of this) or bid for certain free agents because Roethlisberger will be taking up a much larger percentage of the team's cap. In the future, some veterans will also lose their jobs to unproven (i.e., less expensive) rookies for the very same reason.

So will the Steelers end up re-signing Roethlisberger two years early? Yes, probably. It's good for Ben because he would receive more money (and more guaranteed money) sooner rather than later. And it's good for the organization because it would establish long-term certainty in regards to the all-important starting QB position. But since one never knows what will happen on the injury/health front it has the drawback of committing a lot of money and cap space prematurely. And we all know that Roethlisberger is not exactly the second coming of Peyton Manning in terms of health and durability.

One need look no further than the AFC North to illustrate the risks of re-doing a contract early: Recall that the Bengals re-worked Carson Palmer's deal just three-and-half seasons into his six-year rookie contract. A few months later Palmer tore knee ligaments in that memorable playoff game against the Steelers. In hindsight, I'm sure Cincinnati wishes it had negotiated a new deal after he suffered the injury.

Prediction: Most likely not much will happen in terms of serious negotiations until next summer. If I had to guess I'd say Pittsburgh will aim to re-sign Roethlisberger in late August or early September 2008, as the organization will want to make sure he survives next year's training camp and exhibition season without a major injury before committing megabucks to him. At the same time, it wouldn't totally shock me if they decided to wait until after the 2008 season.

As to size of the contract, I won't even try to speculate. But one can be sure it will be, by far, the largest contract in Steelers' history and shatter the team record for largest signing bonus. As always, comments are appreciated.

Bengals: What are the Chances...?

Last week Pittsburgh played in a city where it rarely wins a game. This week Pittsburgh visits a venue where it has been dominant. The Steelers have won six consecutive games in Cincinnati, the last four of those wins authored by Ben Roethlisberger, who is currently 8-0 in his home state of Ohio. Beyond recent history, there are other reasons to like the Steelers over the Bengals. Most importantly, the Bengals' defense has been injury-riddled (especially at linebacker), and as a result Cincy has been allowing points in bunches. Meanwhile, the Bengals' offense hasn't been quite the same without WR Chris Henry , who is currently serving a league-imposed eight-game suspension. Henry will be back in time for the re-match in Pittsburgh later this year, but we should be thankful he won't be between the white lines this Sunday, as the Steelers' D often struggles to contain him.

Having said all that, Steelers' fans still have at least two good reasons to be worried about this game. First, even without Henry the Bengals still have the kind of offensive firepower that is capable of gouging the Steelers' pass defense. An elite veteran QB like Carson Palmer can do a lot of damage with the receivers he has at his disposal, and with the exception of New England and Indianapolis no passing offense presents more matchup problems for the Steelers' "D" than that of the Bengals. Second, Pittsburgh will need to match the Bengals' intensity, as Cincy will be treating this contest as its biggest game of the season. If Pittsburgh is a little 'flat' (as was the case at Arizona and at Denver), the outcome is likely to be unfavorable.

Ultimately, The Steelyard believes the Steelers will emerge victorious, but we don't feel strongly about it. We give the Steelers a 55 percent chance of defeating the Bengals.

"What are the Chances ...?" is 5-1 this season and 18-4 all-time.

Steelers' (Golf Scores) at the American Century Championship

Final results are in from the 2007 American Century Championship at Lake Tahoe. Former NFL QB Chris Chandler won the celebrity tournament, with former Steelers QB Tommy Maddox finishing in a tie for seventh place (rounds of 72, 76 and 71). Meanwhile, current starting QB Ben Roethlisberger finished 47th (82, 82, 88), and former RB Jerome Bettis tied for 63rd (98, 89, 87).

For what it's worth, Ravens backup QB Kyle Boller finished 32nd, with Bengals starter Carson Palmer tying for 33rd.