LeBeau named PFW/PFWA Assistant Coach of the Year

Yesterday, Steelers' defensive coordinator Dick LeBeau was named PFW/PFWA Assistant Coach of the Year. It's the second time LeBeau has won the award, and the fourth time in 16 years that a Pittsburgh assistant has walked away with the honor.

Eagles: What are the Chances...?

This week’s matchup is a toss-up. Both teams have top quarterbacks (Ben Roethlisberger is #1 in the NFL in passer rating with a 133.9 rating and Donovan McNabb is sixth in that category) and both possess elite defenses (led by two of the top defensive coordinators in the NFL, Dick LeBeau and Jim Johnson). Since running the ball figures to be a challenge for both teams, the game figures to be won by the team that makes more plays in the passing game. As always, pass protection will be a concern for the Steelers, but if Big Ben has time to throw the ball downfield, Santonio Holmes could exploit the Eagles’ secondary in the deep passing game.

Big Ben is 1-0 against the Eagles in his career, a 27-3 win at Heinz Field during his rookie year, when he completed 11 of 18 passes for 183 yards, throwing 2 TDs and 1 INT (109.3 passer rating). But Pittsburgh hasn’t won a game in Philadelphia since, well, it was long before the Steelers drafted Terry Bradshaw.

One advantage the Steelers have is an extra day to rest and prepare, as the Eagles played at Dallas (a 41-37 loss) this past Monday night. A little-noticed disadvantage is that Philadelphia signed former Steelers’ wide receiver Willie Reid to its practice squad back in August, perhaps in anticipation of this game. One can't imagine Reid actually playing in the game, but without a doubt he's been huddling with the Eagles' defensive coaches all week long, providing insight into the Steelers' offensive tendencies.

In the final analysis, we see the Steelers as having close to a 50 percent chance of winning, and would probably pick Pittsburgh if the game was at Heinz Field. But since it’s not, we’re predicting an Eagles victory. “What are the Chances…?” is 2-0 thus far in 2008 and 28-7 all-time.

P.S. We’re still waiting for Rashard Mendenhall to do something that leads directly to a Steelers’ loss. It’s going to happen sometime this season; it’s just a matter of when.

Rams: What are the Chances...?

Tonight the Steelers battle the Rams in St. Louis, and if history is any indication, the Steelers are destined to lose. Pittsburgh is 0-11-1 on the road and just 6-17-2 overall versus the Rams. It's also worth noting that the team is just 2-4 away from home this year. And it's a concern that St. Louis possesses the kind of skill position players that could give Pittsburgh's defense problems. But I believe there's a good chance that Mike Tomlin & company will get it together this week, which is why "What are the Chances...?" is giving the Steelers a 60 percent chance of winning tonight. Of course, a loss would mean the first three-game losing streak in Tomlin's head coaching career, at which point fans will start questioning whether the Rooney's made the right choice. But that's all nonsense, because Ben Roethlisberger and Dick LeBeau have consistently made this team look better than it really is.

Jets: What are the Chances...?

This week the Steelers visit the New Jersey Meadowlands to take on the 1-8 New York Jets. Most NFL fans assume Pittsburgh will win by a wide margin, but here are five reasons why the Steelers could struggle:

1. The Steelers have been dominant at home this season but are just 2-2 on the road, losing at Arizona and at Denver.

2. The Steelers' kick return coverage has been poor this season and the Jets feature a big play return man, Leon Washington, who has returned three kicks for touchdowns this year.

3. Despite a 1-8 record (the lone win coming against winless Miami), New York has been more competitive than its won-loss record might indicate.

4. The Jets are coming off a bye week and have had two weeks to prepare.

5. QB Kellen Clemens was recently installed as the Jets' new starter (replacing longtime QB Chad Pennington). As NFL observers know, sometimes teams get a temporary lift when a promising new starter takes the reigns. Plus, there may not yet be enough tape on Clemens for defensive coordinator Dick LeBeau to identify the best ways to defend him.

Still, it's obvious that most of the matchups favor the Steelers, especially the QB matchup. Steelers' QB Ben Roethlisberger boasts a 110.2 passer rating, including a 120.0 rating in the fourth quarter of games. Expect Pittsburgh to employ its usual offensive game plan, passing early and often in hopes of building a lead and then transitioning to a run-oriented attack in the second half.

On defense the Steelers have been more conservative than usual this season, but that could change against the Jets. Inexperienced QBs like Clemens typically struggle against the Steelers' complex defensive schemes, and Pittsburgh figures to go out of its way to confuse Clemens with a diverse array of blitzes.

Even history is on the Steelers' side: Pittsburgh is 16-2 all-time versus the Jets, including 9-2 on the road. With the Jets having a down season, the stadium could be filled with Steelers fans, making the Meadowlands feel like a home away from home. "What are the Chances...?" gives the Steelers an 80 percent chance of defeating the Jets.

Cardinals: "What are the Chances...?"

The outcome of this week’s game is tough to predict. There’s good reason to think the Steelers will beat the Cardinals this Sunday; after all, Pittsburgh is a better, more confident team. And it’s difficult to bet against a healthy Ben Roethlisberger. His career record as a starter is 37-12 (including six playoff games), and he’s 30-4 as a starter if one removes last season (accident-appendectomy-concussion) from the equation. Also, correct me if I’m wrong, but I believe he has only one career loss against an NFC team (at Atlanta last year, the game in which he was concussed in the third quarter).

At the same time, there are countless red flags that make this Sunday’s game a dicey proposition. First, Ken Whisenhunt and Russ Grimm know the Steelers' personnel and have years of first-hand experience going against Dick LeBeau’s defense. The players can discount this from here till Sunday, but winning and losing in the NFL is a fine line and this intimate knowledge could be a difference-maker. Even more troubling is that Whisenhunt and Grimm understand Roethlisberger’s strengths and weaknesses, and might know better than anyone how to minimize Big Ben’s effectiveness.

Another problem is that the Cardinals have a terrific receiving corps, one which the Steelers’ DB’s might have a hard time covering. Arizona’s pass protection is much improved this year (only two sacks allowed in three games); if the Cards’ QB gets time to throw he might be able to pick apart the Steelers’ secondary. Matt Leinart is scheduled to start the game for Arizona, but if he’s ineffective expect Whisenhunt to turn to backup Kurt Warner (as he did last week versus Baltimore). With ample time to throw, Warner is still capable of carving up a secondary like he did during his time with the Rams.

Meanwhile, I’d be slightly surprised if the Cards run the ball effectively versus the Steelers’ defense, but it’s worth noting that Edgerrin James is the last tailback to gain 100 yards versus Pittsburgh, rushing for 124 yards on 29 carries back in November of 2005.

It would also be a mistake to minimize the Cardinals’ newfound home field advantage at University of Phoenix Stadium. Assuming the Cards choose to leave the roof open, it’s going to be hot (sunny and in the mid-90s, at the very least). That’s refreshingly cool for the home team (which is accustomed to summer temperatures of up to 117 degrees), but warm enough to make the Steelers’ linemen very uncomfortable.

Finally, Steelers fans might recall that Bill Cowher started his head coaching career 3-0 but lost his fourth game (at Green Bay) against an upstart team looking to prove itself against an allegedly superior foe. The same thing could very well happen on Sunday. With so many former Steelers’ players and coaches on the other sideline, I’m sure Whisenhunt's charges will be fired up and play with playoff-like intensity.

We hope we’re wrong but The Steelyard gives the Steelers only a 45 percent chance [loss] of beating the Cardinals on Sunday.

In terms of predicting the outcome of Steelers' games, “What are the Chances?” is 3-0 this season and 16-3 overall.

Steelers' "D" To Be More Aggressive in '07?

According to the latest installment of Pro Football Weekly's "The Way We Hear It" defensive coordinator Dick LeBeau may be planning to unveil a more aggressive scheme in 2007. Click here to read (all the AFC North) blurbs.

Another Publication Predicts Losing Season

As noted by The FanHouse, yet another national sports publication (The Sporting News) has predicted a losing season (7-9) for the Steelers in 2007. I don't understand why all the preseason prognosticators are so pessimistic.

The naysayers point to Mike Tomlin's inexperience and changes in scheme as reasons for concern, but I don't necessarily believe this will be a "transition year." Recall that Bill Cowher inherited a 7-9 team, yet in Cowher's first season the Steelers started 3-0 ("Cowher Power!"), finished 11-5, and earned the #1 seed in the AFC playoffs.

I'm not suggesting that the Steelers will win 11 games or win the AFC North in 2007, but without a doubt, Tomlin inherits a better team than Cowher did. And when it comes to head coaches, "experience" is overrated. In fact, head coaching changes often spark a team; just look at the New York Jets' experience with Eric Mangini. Finally, as The Steelyard noted in a widely circulated post (May/07), the presence of defensive coordinator Dick LeBeau gives Tomlin a very good chance to succeed.

LeBeau Gives Tomlin a Chance to Succeed

Fans may have some misgivings about the new direction of the Steelers' offense, but rest assured the team's defense is still in good hands. In fact, one could make the argument that much of Bill Cowher's success was directly attributable to Dick LeBeau, whom new head coach Mike Tomlin has wisely retained as defensive coordinator.

Consider this: In the six seasons in which LeBeau served as Cowher's defensive coordinator the Steelers compiled a 75-34 record (69% winning percentage), including a 9-4 record in the post-season. In five of those six seasons the Steelers qualified for the playoffs, reaching the Super Bowl on two occasions. In the remaining nine seasons during Cowher's 15-year reign the Steelers compiled a not-nearly-as-impressive 86-65-1 record (57% winning percentage), emerging victorious in just three of eight playoff games. Never mind the fact that the Steelers went 33-19 from 1992-94, when LeBeau served as Cowher's secondary coach. In other words, Cowher's career record without LeBeau is a mere 53-46-1.

All of this bodes well for Tomlin, who should reap the benefits of LeBeau's defensive expertise. If the new offense can hold up its end of the bargain Pittsburgh's first season under Tomlin could be more successful than most prognosticators expect.