Bengals: What are the Chances...?

The Steelers are 9.5 point favorites over the Bengals - as it should be. If nothing else, with Carson Palmer sidelined by an elbow injury, the Steelers have a huge advantage at quarterback with Ben Roethlisberger going against Ryan Fitzpatrick. Pittsburgh has also had two weeks to prepare for the game, while the Bengals played last Sunday, a 26-14 loss at the New York Jets.

The keys to the game for the Steelers are: To keep Cincy's wide receiver trio of Chad (Ocho Cinco) Johnson, T.J. Houshmandzadeh, and Chris Henry from making big plays in the passing game, and to limit the return yards of Bengals' KOR Glenn Holt, who leads the NFL with 744 total return yards, and is on pace to generate close to 2,000 kickoff return yards. If the Steelers find success in these two aspects of the game, the rest should take care of itself. Let's give the Steelers a 75 percent chance of winning this game.

Bengals: What are the Chances...?

This is a very difficult game to project. The Steelers, a 7-point favorite, are expected to win, but there are plenty of reasons to think that Cincy will prevail. Not only has Pittsburgh played poorly in recent weeks, Cincinnati is coming off its best game of the season, a 35-6 drubbing of Tennessee. And the Bengals have had success in Pittsburgh in recent years, winning three of the past four meetings at Heinz Field. Moreover, with WR Santonio Holmes out--and LT Marvel Smith likely out too--Pittsburgh could have trouble keeping up with the Bengals’ high-powered offense (5th in the NFL). Of course, Pittsburgh won the first meeting of the year, but back then our defense did not have to contend with Cincy’s full complement of wideouts. Now that Chris Henry is back from suspension, it could be a lot more difficult to defend the Bengals’ passing game. And having played on Monday night, the Steelers have had less time to prepare than the Bengals, and preparation time differential has been a factor in other Steelers’ games this season.

On the plus side, the Steelers are still undefeated at Heinz Field this year (6-0), while the Bengals are 1-4 on the road. And a sloppy track/bad weather would seem to work in Pittsburgh’s favor. But until Pittsburgh shows signs of coming out of its funk on offense, it’s difficult to pick the Steelers. We’d love to be wrong on this, but "What are the Chances…?" is giving the Steelers a 45 percent chance of defeating the Bengals.

"What are the Chances…?" is 9-2 this season and 22-5 all-time.

Bengals: What are the Chances...?

Last week Pittsburgh played in a city where it rarely wins a game. This week Pittsburgh visits a venue where it has been dominant. The Steelers have won six consecutive games in Cincinnati, the last four of those wins authored by Ben Roethlisberger, who is currently 8-0 in his home state of Ohio. Beyond recent history, there are other reasons to like the Steelers over the Bengals. Most importantly, the Bengals' defense has been injury-riddled (especially at linebacker), and as a result Cincy has been allowing points in bunches. Meanwhile, the Bengals' offense hasn't been quite the same without WR Chris Henry , who is currently serving a league-imposed eight-game suspension. Henry will be back in time for the re-match in Pittsburgh later this year, but we should be thankful he won't be between the white lines this Sunday, as the Steelers' D often struggles to contain him.

Having said all that, Steelers' fans still have at least two good reasons to be worried about this game. First, even without Henry the Bengals still have the kind of offensive firepower that is capable of gouging the Steelers' pass defense. An elite veteran QB like Carson Palmer can do a lot of damage with the receivers he has at his disposal, and with the exception of New England and Indianapolis no passing offense presents more matchup problems for the Steelers' "D" than that of the Bengals. Second, Pittsburgh will need to match the Bengals' intensity, as Cincy will be treating this contest as its biggest game of the season. If Pittsburgh is a little 'flat' (as was the case at Arizona and at Denver), the outcome is likely to be unfavorable.

Ultimately, The Steelyard believes the Steelers will emerge victorious, but we don't feel strongly about it. We give the Steelers a 55 percent chance of defeating the Bengals.

"What are the Chances ...?" is 5-1 this season and 18-4 all-time.