Patriots: What are the Chances…?

The Steelers are a 4.5 point favorite over the Patriots on Sunday night, a surprisingly large spread considering 1) Tom Brady’s history of success against Pittsburgh’s defense, and 2) Pittsburgh’s injuries up and down its offensive line. Of course, New England has its own problems—-namely, Brady’s sprained foot, and a defense that hasn’t been able to get off the field on third down. I believe the Steelers are going to win, but I’m not especially confident: 55 percent chance.

What are the Chances…? Is 5-3 thus far in 2010, and 53-23 all-time.

Steelers sixth in PFW's early 2008 Power Ranking

Believe it or not, Pro Football Weekly (PFW) has already issued its first power ranking for 2008, slotting Pittsburgh in at #6, a shockingly high position when one considers that the Steelers appear to be on the way down. PFW considers QB to be the team's strongest position, saying, "Ben Roethlisberger remains the cream of the 2004 QB crop," and "outside of [Tom] Brady and Peyton [Manning], there’s no quarterback I’d rather have leading my team."

For what it's worth, the Browns are ranked at #7, the Ravens at #19 and the Bengals at #25. Click here to review the entire list.

Roethlisberger's underrated season

When Steelers' QB Ben Roethlisberger was named to the Pro Bowl earlier this season many sports media pundits questioned whether other AFC QB's like David Garrard (Jacksonville) or even Derek Anderson (Cleveland) would have been more deserving. Sorry folks, Roethlisberger is more deserving of a Pro Bowl berth than any other QB in the league, excepting Tom Brady, of course.

By way of comparison, Brady finished the regular season with 50 touchdown passes and just eight interceptions (117.2 passer rating). Roethlisberger threw 32 TD passes and only 11 interceptions (104.1 rating). Compare those numbers to those of Garrard (18 TD's, 3 INT's, 102.2 rating) and Anderson (29 TD's, 19 INT's, 82.5 rating). Then consider that Roethlisberger received some of the worst pass protection in the NFL. Big Ben was sacked a David Carr-like 47 times in only 404 pass attempts (one sack for every 8.6 attempts), while Garrard went down 21 times in 325 attempts (once every 15.4 attempts) and Anderson a mere 14 times in 527 attempts (once per 37.6 attempts).

It's also worth comparing Roethlisberger's numbers to other QB's who received inadequate protection. Only two other quarterbacks were sacked more than 37 times in 2007. Donovan McNabb (Philadelphia) was sacked 44 times in 473 attempts (once per 10.75 attempts) and posted an 89.9 passer rating, while Jon Kitna (Detroit) absorbed a league-high 51 sacks in 561 attempts (one sack per 11 attempts) and finished with an 80.9 rating.

Some might argue that Roethlisberger benefitted from a strong running game, as Pittsburgh's feature back, Willie Parker, gained more than 1,300 yards. Yet, Parker managed a relatively pedestrian 4.1 yards per carry (far below most of the league's other rushing leaders), and his impressive yardage total is mostly a function of his high number of carries. Meanwhile, Big Ben's receivers are hardly an impressive lot: Hines Ward may one day be enshrined in the Hall of Fame, but at this point in his career, he's a move-the-chains type of possession receiver. And like Santonio Holmes (Pittsburgh's only legitimate down-the-field threat), Ward has not been able to stay healthy this year. Finally, tight end Heath Miller is a solid receiver, but rarely generates a big play.

The bottom line is that Roethlisberger has done more with less than any other QB in the league. If the Steelers somehow find a way to upgrade the talent around him, one can expect even better performances from Big Ben in coming seasons.

Thankful for Big Ben? Me too.

In an earlier post The Steelyard provided a sneak preview of the new Dan Rooney book, "My 75 Years with the Pittsburgh Steelers and the NFL" (Da Capo), in which Rooney lets it slip that he intervened to make sure the Steelers drafted Ben Roethlisberger with the 11th pick of the 2004 draft (instead of OT Shawn Andrews, who Bill Cowher apparently preferred). Thank goodness Rooney stepped in and backed Director of Football Operations Kevin Colbert, who also championed Roethlisberger. This pivotal decision enabled the Steelers to win a Super Bowl, and may well afford the organization the opportunity to win more Super Bowls in the next six or eight years.

Interestingly, it seems like many Steelers' fans underestimate the value of Big Ben. It's hard to fathom how fans can criticize him and say things like, "Big Ben makes me crazy sometimes" or "He makes too many mistakes." Have these fans lost their minds? Or have they simply become spoiled? I'll go on record right now and say that Roethlisberger is already the best QB in franchise history. In this era he may never win four Super Bowls like Terry Bradshaw did but that doesn't change the fact that he has been better ... sooner ... than just about any QB in NFL history. His career record is 39-14 (which rivals the winning percentage of Tom Brady) and if one eliminates the 2006 (accident-appendectomy-concussion) season he's lost a grand total of only six starts (32-6). His career yards per attempt is among the best in NFL history and his post-season record is 5-1. Like every NFL QB he throws interceptions from time to time, but what goes unmentioned is that he fumbles the ball much less often than other QB's. And, as columnist Stan Savran explains in "Thankful for Big Ben", he makes the talent around him look better than it really is.

I think the Steelers have to be concerned that his career may be relatively short, thanks to the cumulative effect of the injuries he has suffered. But let's make no mistake: Big Ben is on course for the Hall of Fame, even if he can't get elected to a Pro Bowl.

History Demonstrates That Patriots' Fans Should Root For a Loss

Next week the undefeated New England Patriots will play the undefeated Indianapolis Colts in one of the most anticipated regular season games in history. A lot of NFL fans and media act as if the Patriots are a shoo-in to win the Super Bowl, and some even believe Tom Brady & Co. will go undefeated.

While the Patriots are certainly the best team in football right now, it’s worth reminding folks that the best team doesn’t always reach the Super Bowl, much less win it.

One need look no further than recent history: Last year the Colts won the Super Bowl but the Chargers were clearly the class of the league. In 2005 the Colts were tops, yet the Steelers knocked them out in the divisional round en route to a Super Bowl title. In 2004, Pittsburgh posted a 15-1 regular season mark, but the Patriots walked away with the Super Bowl title.

This is a “tradition,” if you will, that goes back a long way. Many Steelers’ fans regard their 1976 team as the best in franchise history. That year Pittsburgh rolled into the playoffs on a nine-game winning streak in which the defense posted six shutouts and allowed an average of three--that’s right, three!--points per game. Yet, a third consecutive Super Bowl appearance proved to be elusive.

Of course, some will argue that this Patriots’ offense is so good that it makes New England unstoppable. Not so fast. Recall that the 1998 Minnesota Vikings (led by then-rookie Randy Moss) hold the record for most points (556) scored in a season, yet that team bowed out of the playoffs in its first playoff game. And it goes without saying that a major injury to Brady or several of New England’s key receivers could dramatically compromise the team’s effectiveness on offense.

While it might seem counterintuitive, New England’s chances of winning a Super Bowl would be greatly enhanced if it lost a game … and better sooner rather than later. (Preferably the loss shouldn't come against Indy, however, as that could have implications for home field advantage). Teams that are undefeated as late as December have to contend with additional scrutiny and media attention, neither of which is conducive to winning a championship. Plus, a loss would remind New England that it is not invincible.

Let’s assume for a second that the Patriots are 16-0 heading into the playoffs. What happens if New England falls behind early in its first playoff game? Will the team play “tight” knowing that an undefeated season could all be for naught? Will playoff opponents play like they have nothing to lose, since everyone will be expecting the Pats to romp?

That’s why the best thing that could happen to the Patriots is a loss. Recall that the 1984 San Francisco 49ers finished 18-1 en route to a Super Bowl title. One might argue that the key game was a Week 7 home loss to the Steelers, which took the undefeated season option off the table and enabled a much smoother ride to the Super Bowl.

The Patriots’ players can’t play to lose, but that shouldn’t stop New England fans from rooting for a single defeat.

Big Ben moves up on MVP meter

This week Steelers' QB Ben Roethlisberger moves up to the #3 position on Pro Football Weekly's MVP meter, trailing only Tom Brady and Peyton Manning. Click here to see the current list.