Steelers 38, Ravens 7

As it turns out, The Steelyard correctly predicted the outcome of last night's game ("What are the Chances?" is now 7-1 on the season and 20-4 all-time), but we gave the Ravens more credit than they deserve in our pre-game prediction.

Kudos to LB James Harrison, who essentially had a career year, all within the confines of a single game. Here is Harrison's stat line for last night's game: 10 total tackles, 3.5 sacks, 1 interception, 3 forced fumbles, and 1 fumble recovery. Now compare that with his first five seasons in Pittsburgh: 63 total tackles, 4 sacks, 1 interception, and 1 fumble recovery.

Also, kudos to WR Hines Ward, who delivered several highlight reel blocks on Ravens' defenders, most notably S Ed Reed.

And congrats to QB Ben Roethlisberger, who posted a 158.3 passer rating, thanks to throwing five TD passes in only 16 attempts. In light of the Ravens' obvious challenges on offense and Big Ben's propensity for getting "dinged up," I thought Mike Tomlin allowed Roethlisberger to play too long. I also wasn't wild about the fact that Tomlin allowed Roethlisberger to re-enter the game after he suffered the injury (or injuries). Hopefully, Ben won't suffer any lingering effects or miss time.

Finally, with Baltimore in the rear-view mirror and Cleveland next on Pittsburgh's schedule, I think Steelers' fans might like to be reminded that today is the anniversary of the day Art Modell announced plans to move the old Cleveland Browns to Baltimore. Click here to read a blurb about that infamous day in Browns/Ravens history.

Thankful for Big Ben? Me too.

In an earlier post The Steelyard provided a sneak preview of the new Dan Rooney book, "My 75 Years with the Pittsburgh Steelers and the NFL" (Da Capo), in which Rooney lets it slip that he intervened to make sure the Steelers drafted Ben Roethlisberger with the 11th pick of the 2004 draft (instead of OT Shawn Andrews, who Bill Cowher apparently preferred). Thank goodness Rooney stepped in and backed Director of Football Operations Kevin Colbert, who also championed Roethlisberger. This pivotal decision enabled the Steelers to win a Super Bowl, and may well afford the organization the opportunity to win more Super Bowls in the next six or eight years.

Interestingly, it seems like many Steelers' fans underestimate the value of Big Ben. It's hard to fathom how fans can criticize him and say things like, "Big Ben makes me crazy sometimes" or "He makes too many mistakes." Have these fans lost their minds? Or have they simply become spoiled? I'll go on record right now and say that Roethlisberger is already the best QB in franchise history. In this era he may never win four Super Bowls like Terry Bradshaw did but that doesn't change the fact that he has been better ... sooner ... than just about any QB in NFL history. His career record is 39-14 (which rivals the winning percentage of Tom Brady) and if one eliminates the 2006 (accident-appendectomy-concussion) season he's lost a grand total of only six starts (32-6). His career yards per attempt is among the best in NFL history and his post-season record is 5-1. Like every NFL QB he throws interceptions from time to time, but what goes unmentioned is that he fumbles the ball much less often than other QB's. And, as columnist Stan Savran explains in "Thankful for Big Ben", he makes the talent around him look better than it really is.

I think the Steelers have to be concerned that his career may be relatively short, thanks to the cumulative effect of the injuries he has suffered. But let's make no mistake: Big Ben is on course for the Hall of Fame, even if he can't get elected to a Pro Bowl.

Ravens: What are the Chances...?

This week the oddsmakers have the Steelers as a nine- to ten-point favorite versus the Ravens. That sounds remarkably high, especially considering the results of last season's games (27-0 and 31-7). Sure, the Steelers have improved and the Ravens have slipped since then, but not by that much. And the truth is that the Ravens' defense still matches up better against the Steelers' offense than any other defense in the NFL.

While the Ravens have already suffered losses to three teams (Cin., Cle., Buff.) the Steelers have defeated in resounding fashion, Baltimore is coming off a bye and is much healthier than it has been in a while. The extended rest will allow QB Steve McNair to start the game, which is never good news for Pittsburgh. McNair is 11-4 v. the Steelers, including a 5-3 record and 102.8 passer rating in Pittsburgh. But the key to the game will be how well the Steelers' offense performs against the Ravens' defense, which plays an exceptionally physical style that the Steelers have struggled against in recent years. As a result, this figures to be a nerve-wracking game for Steelers' fans to watch: With Ben Roethlisberger's health paramount to the Steelers' long-term success, the O-line cannot allow the Ravens to get many hits on Big Ben.

The Steelers have lost three games in a row versus Baltimore and haven't beaten the Ravens by more than one point since 2004. If I were a betting man I'd take the Ravens plus the points, especially since Billick & Co. have had two weeks to prepare. But straight up it's another story: The Steelyard gives the Steelers a 60 percent chance of squeaking out a win.

"What are the Chances...?" is 6-1 this season and 19-4 all-time.

"Last Team Standing"

For those Steelers (and Eagles) fans interested in early NFL history, the book "Last Team Standing" (Da Capo), by Matthew Algeo, is now available in paperback. At The Steelyard we're not much interested in World War II-era football, but some fans certainly are, so we thought we'd throw it out there. According to the cover jacket the theme of the book is "How the Pittsburgh Steelers & Philadelphia Eagles--'The Steagles'--saved pro football during World War II." How's that for wartime heroism?

Bengals: What are the Chances...?

Last week Pittsburgh played in a city where it rarely wins a game. This week Pittsburgh visits a venue where it has been dominant. The Steelers have won six consecutive games in Cincinnati, the last four of those wins authored by Ben Roethlisberger, who is currently 8-0 in his home state of Ohio. Beyond recent history, there are other reasons to like the Steelers over the Bengals. Most importantly, the Bengals' defense has been injury-riddled (especially at linebacker), and as a result Cincy has been allowing points in bunches. Meanwhile, the Bengals' offense hasn't been quite the same without WR Chris Henry , who is currently serving a league-imposed eight-game suspension. Henry will be back in time for the re-match in Pittsburgh later this year, but we should be thankful he won't be between the white lines this Sunday, as the Steelers' D often struggles to contain him.

Having said all that, Steelers' fans still have at least two good reasons to be worried about this game. First, even without Henry the Bengals still have the kind of offensive firepower that is capable of gouging the Steelers' pass defense. An elite veteran QB like Carson Palmer can do a lot of damage with the receivers he has at his disposal, and with the exception of New England and Indianapolis no passing offense presents more matchup problems for the Steelers' "D" than that of the Bengals. Second, Pittsburgh will need to match the Bengals' intensity, as Cincy will be treating this contest as its biggest game of the season. If Pittsburgh is a little 'flat' (as was the case at Arizona and at Denver), the outcome is likely to be unfavorable.

Ultimately, The Steelyard believes the Steelers will emerge victorious, but we don't feel strongly about it. We give the Steelers a 55 percent chance of defeating the Bengals.

"What are the Chances ...?" is 5-1 this season and 18-4 all-time.

The Return of "What are the Chances?"

Today marks the return of The Steelyard's unique method of predicting the results of Steelers' games. Instead of simply predicting win/loss, the score of the upcoming game, or relying on the oddsmakers, The Steelyard estimates the Steelers' chances of winning (on a percentage basis) based on how strongly we feel about the likelihood of victory.

In 2006 The Steelyard proved to be a consistently accurate predictor of the Steelers' fortunes. The Steelers were 1-6 in games in which The Steelyard estimated that the team had a less than 50 percent chance of victory. Meanwhile, Pittsburgh was 7-2 in games in which we gave the Steelers a 50 percent or better chance of winning. (Naturally, one of those two "losses" was the defeat to the 2-14 Oakland Raiders). Essentially, The Steelyard correctly predicted the outcome of 13 of 16 games last year.

The 2007 season figures to be a greater challenge from a prediction standpoint, as we don't yet have a feel for a Mike Tomlin coached team. The Steelyard a lot of confidence in Tomlin, but we don't know how he will fare as a game manager (utilizing timeouts, officiating challenges, etc.), an aspect of the game where, in our opinion, Bill Cowher made very few mistakes.

With little to go on, we estimate that Pittsburgh has a sixty percent chance of defeating the Browns this Sunday. Cleveland's overall talent level is up from last season, but the QB matchup (Ben Roethlisberger v. Charlie Frye) would appear to weigh strongly in the Steelers' favor. It's worth noting that Roethlisberger has played in only one season opener during his three-year tenure, posting a perfect 158.3 passer rating in a 34-7 win over Tennessee in Week One 2005.

On the other hand, history isn't on Pittsburgh's side as no Steelers' coach has ever won his first game at Cleveland. We'll soon find out if Tomlin can buck that trend.