Steelers v. Patriots: Line now at 10.5 points

The opening line on the Steelers/Patriots game was 13.5 points, but over the course of the week it has fallen to 10.5 points. It has been a long time since the Steelers have faced odds like this. The Steelers were 12.5 point underdogs for Bill Cowher's first game, way back in September 1992 - a game the Steelers won, 29-24.

Another historical note worth mentioning: The 1984 San Franciso 49ers finished 18-1 and won the Super Bowl that year. The 49ers' only loss came against the Steelers at Candlestick Park.

History Demonstrates That Patriots' Fans Should Root For a Loss

Next week the undefeated New England Patriots will play the undefeated Indianapolis Colts in one of the most anticipated regular season games in history. A lot of NFL fans and media act as if the Patriots are a shoo-in to win the Super Bowl, and some even believe Tom Brady & Co. will go undefeated.

While the Patriots are certainly the best team in football right now, it’s worth reminding folks that the best team doesn’t always reach the Super Bowl, much less win it.

One need look no further than recent history: Last year the Colts won the Super Bowl but the Chargers were clearly the class of the league. In 2005 the Colts were tops, yet the Steelers knocked them out in the divisional round en route to a Super Bowl title. In 2004, Pittsburgh posted a 15-1 regular season mark, but the Patriots walked away with the Super Bowl title.

This is a “tradition,” if you will, that goes back a long way. Many Steelers’ fans regard their 1976 team as the best in franchise history. That year Pittsburgh rolled into the playoffs on a nine-game winning streak in which the defense posted six shutouts and allowed an average of three--that’s right, three!--points per game. Yet, a third consecutive Super Bowl appearance proved to be elusive.

Of course, some will argue that this Patriots’ offense is so good that it makes New England unstoppable. Not so fast. Recall that the 1998 Minnesota Vikings (led by then-rookie Randy Moss) hold the record for most points (556) scored in a season, yet that team bowed out of the playoffs in its first playoff game. And it goes without saying that a major injury to Brady or several of New England’s key receivers could dramatically compromise the team’s effectiveness on offense.

While it might seem counterintuitive, New England’s chances of winning a Super Bowl would be greatly enhanced if it lost a game … and better sooner rather than later. (Preferably the loss shouldn't come against Indy, however, as that could have implications for home field advantage). Teams that are undefeated as late as December have to contend with additional scrutiny and media attention, neither of which is conducive to winning a championship. Plus, a loss would remind New England that it is not invincible.

Let’s assume for a second that the Patriots are 16-0 heading into the playoffs. What happens if New England falls behind early in its first playoff game? Will the team play “tight” knowing that an undefeated season could all be for naught? Will playoff opponents play like they have nothing to lose, since everyone will be expecting the Pats to romp?

That’s why the best thing that could happen to the Patriots is a loss. Recall that the 1984 San Francisco 49ers finished 18-1 en route to a Super Bowl title. One might argue that the key game was a Week 7 home loss to the Steelers, which took the undefeated season option off the table and enabled a much smoother ride to the Super Bowl.

The Patriots’ players can’t play to lose, but that shouldn’t stop New England fans from rooting for a single defeat.

49ers: What are the Chances...?

The Steelyard estimates that the Steelers have a 70 percent chance of defeating the San Francisco 49ers tomorrow. Both teams are 2-0 but the Steelers have looked considerably more impressive thus far this season. Expect the Steelers "D" to focus on shutting down 49ers RB Frank Gore , thereby putting the game in the hands of third-year QB Alex Smith. Meanwhile, the Steelers offense will have to contend with an underrated and fast-improving 49ers defense that features several impact players (including CB Nate Clements, who is one of the best cornerbacks in the NFL). Also, watch for rookie LB Patrick Willis (19 tackles and a forced fumble in the first two games), arguably the leading candidate for defensive rookie of the year. The 49ers best chance is to keep this a low scoring game. If the Steelers' offense is effective early the Niners don't have the firepower to play catch-up.

Of note: The 49ers won the last meeting between the two teams, 30-14, way back in 2003. But Pittsburgh has won 12 of its last 13 games versus the NFC, the lone loss coming last year at Atlanta, when Ben Roethlisberger was knocked out of the game with a concussion in the third quarter.

* "What are the Chances?" is 2-0 so far this year.