Redskins: What are the Chances...?

The good news is that the Steelers seem to match up better against the Redskins than they do against either the Eagles or Giants. So although the Redskins are a two-point favorite, I like the Steelers’ chances in Washington, in spite of the fact that Pittsburgh hasn’t won a regular season game in the capital since 1964.

This game figures to be won by the team whose QB makes the fewest mistakes. It’s well documented that Jason Campbell hasn’t thrown an interception yet this season; that’s a streak that’s due to come to an end. Meanwhile, Ben Roethlisberger must avoid throwing INT’s at all costs, even if it means a more conservative game plan. The Redskins don’t have the type of offense that makes a lot of big plays; the Steelers need to make sure Washington doesn’t score “easy” points thanks to a short field.

One caveat here: The kicking game could be an adventure, thanks to the presence of a new long snapper (Jared Retkofsky) and the fact that the Steelers will be going with a hobbled punter (Mitch Berger). One or two breakdowns in the kicking game would likely be enough to swing the game in the wrong direction for the Steelers. But overall I’m optimistic, giving the black & gold a 55 percent chance of winning this game.

Prediction-wise The Steelyard is 5-2 on the season and 31-9 all-time.

Cowher to replace Gibbs?

With Joe Gibbs resigning from his position as head coach of the Washington Redskins, Bill Cowher is certain to get a call from Redskins' owner Dan Snyder. Will Cowher come back to coach the Redskins? It seems a good bet, for at least two reasons. First, Washington isn't far from Cowher's Carolina home. Second, Snyder would probably be willing to pay Cowher the big money he is looking for. And it wouldn't be easy for Bill - or anyone, for that matter - to walk away from eight to ten million dollars a year.

History Demonstrates That Patriots' Fans Should Root For a Loss

Next week the undefeated New England Patriots will play the undefeated Indianapolis Colts in one of the most anticipated regular season games in history. A lot of NFL fans and media act as if the Patriots are a shoo-in to win the Super Bowl, and some even believe Tom Brady & Co. will go undefeated.

While the Patriots are certainly the best team in football right now, it’s worth reminding folks that the best team doesn’t always reach the Super Bowl, much less win it.

One need look no further than recent history: Last year the Colts won the Super Bowl but the Chargers were clearly the class of the league. In 2005 the Colts were tops, yet the Steelers knocked them out in the divisional round en route to a Super Bowl title. In 2004, Pittsburgh posted a 15-1 regular season mark, but the Patriots walked away with the Super Bowl title.

This is a “tradition,” if you will, that goes back a long way. Many Steelers’ fans regard their 1976 team as the best in franchise history. That year Pittsburgh rolled into the playoffs on a nine-game winning streak in which the defense posted six shutouts and allowed an average of three--that’s right, three!--points per game. Yet, a third consecutive Super Bowl appearance proved to be elusive.

Of course, some will argue that this Patriots’ offense is so good that it makes New England unstoppable. Not so fast. Recall that the 1998 Minnesota Vikings (led by then-rookie Randy Moss) hold the record for most points (556) scored in a season, yet that team bowed out of the playoffs in its first playoff game. And it goes without saying that a major injury to Brady or several of New England’s key receivers could dramatically compromise the team’s effectiveness on offense.

While it might seem counterintuitive, New England’s chances of winning a Super Bowl would be greatly enhanced if it lost a game … and better sooner rather than later. (Preferably the loss shouldn't come against Indy, however, as that could have implications for home field advantage). Teams that are undefeated as late as December have to contend with additional scrutiny and media attention, neither of which is conducive to winning a championship. Plus, a loss would remind New England that it is not invincible.

Let’s assume for a second that the Patriots are 16-0 heading into the playoffs. What happens if New England falls behind early in its first playoff game? Will the team play “tight” knowing that an undefeated season could all be for naught? Will playoff opponents play like they have nothing to lose, since everyone will be expecting the Pats to romp?

That’s why the best thing that could happen to the Patriots is a loss. Recall that the 1984 San Francisco 49ers finished 18-1 en route to a Super Bowl title. One might argue that the key game was a Week 7 home loss to the Steelers, which took the undefeated season option off the table and enabled a much smoother ride to the Super Bowl.

The Patriots’ players can’t play to lose, but that shouldn’t stop New England fans from rooting for a single defeat.

Theismann's Reaction to Keisel's hit on Campbell

For what it's worth, here's how Washington Redskins announcer Joe Theismann reacted to Brett Keisel's (penalized) hit on Redskins QB Jason Campbell: "You just hate to see this. There's no excuse for going low at the quarterback.... He [Keisel] had plenty of time to be able to adjust his hit.... A 15-yard penalty is not enough. ... I wouldn't say it was dirty ... I wouldn't say it was intentional, but he was coming in low the whole way."

Redskins Seek to End Ugly Pre-Season Streak

On Saturday night the Washington Redskins will seek to end an embarrassing (pre-season) streak of futility when they take on the Steelers at FedEx Field. Specifically, the Redskins' first-team offense has failed to score during any of the team's last six pre-season games. For more information about the streak see nfl.com's Game Center preview.

The Redskins and Steelers last met in the preseason on August 26, 2005, with Washington treating its fans to a 17-10 victory. In preseason, the two clubs have met 17 times, with the Redskins holding a 12-4-1 lead in the series.

Polamalu's new contract v. LaRon Landry's rookie contract

NFL fans regard top 10 draft picks as potential saviors, the kind of players that can change the fortunes of a troubled franchise. Yet, early first round selections are becoming so expensive to sign that teams may increasingly look to trade out of the top 10 in future drafts. In fact, some 2007 first rounders are signing rookie contracts that surpass the value of those signed by established stars with Pro Bowl credentials and Super Bowl rings.

Case in point: Last week Pittsburgh safety Troy Polamalu signed a contract extension worth $33 million over five years, a deal that includes $15.375 million in guaranteed money. By way of comparison, rookie safety LaRon Landry (chosen sixth overall in the 2007 draft by the Washington Redskins) just received a five-year $41.5 million contract that includes $17.5 million in guaranteed money, making him the highest paid safety in the league.

With top 10 contracts reaching such exorbinant heights it's no wonder that three top picks remain unsigned, including #1 overall choice JaMarcus Russell (Oakland Raiders) and #2 overall selection Calvin Johnson (Detroit Lions).

To find out the current status of all 32 first round picks click here.