Forget Arians' play calling, here's a real issue

In the wake of the Jets loss and Dolphins win there has been considerable hand-wringing among fans, bloggers and beat writers alike about the problems with Bruce Arians' play calling. Personally, I don't see any problem with the plays being called; the issue is that the offensive line hasn't played very well in the past few weeks. And when the OL struggles the plays--no matter what they are--don't work.

Meanwhile, a true worry that no one talks about has to do with Mike Tomlin's decision making on fourth down. In the Dolphins game, there were two fourth down plays in which Tomlin made the wrong decision. First, the Steelers should never have attempted the 44-yard field goal that Jeff Reed missed. In those conditions it would have made more sense to go for it or punt. Second, the Steelers also failed to convert on a fourth and 3 just inside Dolphins' territory; it would have been prudent to punt in that situation, thereby pinning Miami deep in its own territory.

The decision making on fourth down has been an issue on several other occasions this season. So far it hasn't come back to bite the Steelers, but sooner or later Tomlin's over-aggressiveness is going to cost them a game.

In terms of predictions ... with the win over the Dolphins "What are the Chances...?" is now 9-2 on the season and 22-5 all-time.